Election Math and Aftermath, Pt. II

Well, call it Democratic wishful thinking in Georgia. With both parties putting in campaign infrastructure and money, along with party dignitaries and celebrities (Sarah Palin, John McCain, Rudolph Giuliani, and Mitt Romney of the GOP, Donna Brazile, Al Gore, Ludacris and T.I. of the Democratic Party), Jim Martin couldn't pull off victory in the Senate run-off, necessitated by incumbent Saxby Chambliss' 49.8% of the vote on November 4. According to NBC News, AP, CNN, and Sean Quinn of FiveThirtyEight, Saxby Chambliss will win the run-off with 69% of the vote in, with Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight saying that Chambliss will defeat Martin by about 10 points. It looks as if Martin could not get out the African-American vote in Democratic-heavy DeKalb and Fulton Counties (Martin was actually losing to Fulton County at time of post). This ends the chances of Democrats gaining a super-majority; with the Senate race in Minnesota between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman, Democrat Al Franken, and Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley still being contested, Democrats hold a 58-41 majority in the Senate, with, since last post, Democratic challenger Mark Begich defeating incumbent and convicted felon Ted Stevens in Alaska (leading to a bizarre standing ovation and hours-long veneration of the man, including Larry Craig eerily saying, "I'll miss you, Uncle Ted.")

However, the bigger aftermath of the election comes in President-elect Obama's Cabinet. Mr. Obama has appointed the following posts:

White House Chief of Staff: Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-IL), former advisor to Bill Clinton, Chairman, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2006
Secretary of the Treasury: Timothy Geithner, President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Vice Chairman, Federal Open Market Committee
Secretary of State: Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), former First Lady
Secretary of Defense: Robert Gates, current Defense Secretary
Attorney General: Eric Holder, former Deputy Attorney General under Clinton
Secretary of Homeland Security: Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)
Secretary of Commerce: Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), former Energy Secy. and UN Ambassador

Additionally, it has been reported that former South Dakota senator Tom Daschle will be appointed Secretary of Health and Human Services.

An interesting effect of this is who will replace these people. Obviously, Mr. Holder and Dr. Gates need not be replaced from their current positions, as the former does not have one in government and the latter will remain in his current position. However, here's how it will all break down:

Democratic Lt. Gov. Diane Denish will replace Gov. Richardson in the Santa Fe state house.

Republican Secy. of State Jan Brewer will replace Gov. Napolitano, who was rumored to be considering a run against John McCain in 2010 for the Senate (she would have to leave the state house due to term limits that year anyway).

Vice-President Elect Joe Biden will be replaced by his chief of staff, Ted Kaufman. Kaufman stated that he will not run for the Senate in the 2010 special election, possibly making way for the Vice-President elect's son, Beau, who is the Delaware Attorney General. Other possible candidates include outgoing Lt. Gov. John C. Carney, Jr. for the Democrats, and Rep. Michael Castle for the Republicans.

What is unknown is who will replace Rep. Emanuel, Sen. Clinton, and President-elect Obama. Rumors state that Gov. Rod Blagojevich will appoint Illinois Dept. of Veterans Affairs Director Tammy Duckworth, Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr., or Blagojevich himself as Senator, with no special election needed (Obama's seat would have been up for election in 2010 anyway). Other names that could float to the surface include Chicago Mayor William Daley and former Senator Carol Moseley Braun.

2010 will be a very interesting year for New York politics. Not only will both of the senatorial seats be up for election (one of which will, barring a bizarre turn-of-events, be easily won by incumbent Democrat Charles Schumer), the governorship (and vacant Lieutenant Governorship) will also be up for election. Also, in 2009, the mayor of New York will be elected, which could cause an even larger problem in New York politics, as Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg (I), who has wrangled away the rights of voters to choose whether or not city elected officials could serve a third term, instead choosing in favor of the third term himself, could possibly run for governor. With a Marist University poll showing incumbent Gov. David A. Paterson leading Bloomberg 44% to 40%, with 16% undecided, Gov. Paterson's got some thinking to do as to who will be the next junior Senator. In the same Marist poll aforementioned, 43% of registered voters believe current Attorney General Andrew Cuomo ought to be appointed Senator. This would make the most sense for Paterson: Cuomo, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary and eldest son of former New York City mayor and New York governor Mario Cuomo, has been rumored to run for the Democratic nomination for governor in 2010, so pushing a rival out of the picture would be optimal for Paterson. Other possible candidates include Reps. Steve Israel, Nydia Velasquez, or Gregory Meeks (who, by the way, is my Congressman and was the only one of the three to be parodied on SNL).

And then there's my choice, the one that will never happen. That's former President Bill Clinton. I think that this would be a very good pick: Bill's immensely popular, knows how to win an election, and can raise money at will (along with funding his own campaign). I also like it for the history; he would become the first president since later-Chief Justice William Howard Taft to be re-involved in the federal government, the first president since Andrew Johnson (ironically, one of the two-along with Clinton-to be impeached) to serve in the Senate, and the first spouse to replace their Senator spouse since Jean Carnahan was appointed to her replace posthumously elected husband Mel in 2000.

On Friday, I will post an apolitical post, On the Malice of the Human Spirit, in response to the debacles involving Stephon Marbury of the New York Knicks, and the tragic death of a man, who apparently used to live on my block, at my local Wal-Mart. Next Thursday, I will post On the Need to Impeach the Current President. Also, stay tuned for the live blog, The Great Nexus: On Religion and Politics, on Tuesday, December 23; the Second Annual Paddy Awards on Monday, December 29; and my final post of the Bush Administration, my Eulogy of the Bush Administration (which I may do as a video), on January 19.