Election Math and Aftermath

Hopefully, we will all remember where we were at 11:02 PM Eastern Time, on Tuesday, November 4. Some of you may have been in Chicago's Grant Park, or on Harlem's 125th Street, or in Times Square, or quite possibly just outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue-where Barack Obama will reside, effective at noon on January 20, 2009. Obama won, at post time, 364 electoral votes to McCain's 163-with one electoral vote still in doubt, that being the electoral vote of Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District-which Obama looks to win, according to Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight and the Omaha World-Herald. Obama won with a staggering 64 million votes-52% of the popular vote.

Here's a look at the Electoral Map:


The real struggle, though, is in the Senate. Let's take a look at the ten races I saw as the closest, and if I got my predictions right:


10. Colorado:
PREDICTION: MARK UDALL (D) BY 15
Okay, so it was closer than I thought. Udall did win in a landslide, though, by nine points over former congressman Bob Schaffer. Colorado was a big state for the Dems this year; they made their gambit by holding the DNC in Denver, and the west went with them.

9. Texas:
PREDICTION: JOHN CORNYN (R) BY 7
And this one wasn't as close as I thought. Although Obama campaigned more there than most Dems, and I thought that the youth (especially in the Austin area) was underpolled in an already close race (according to polls), challenger Rick Noriega just couldn't win here, losing by 12. Chalk it up to left-wing wishful thinking.

8. New Hampshire:
PREDICTION: JEANNE SHAHEEN (D) BY 6
Finally, one where I was close! Former Governor Shaheen beat incumbent Sununu by 7 points!

7. Kentucky:
PREDICTION: BRUCE LUNSFORD (D) BY 1
Alas, sometimes a Republican can win. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell got in very hot water in this race, which wasn't called until late in the evening. But Bruce Lunsord couldn't eke this one out: McConnell by 6.

6. Georgia:
PREDICTION: JIM MARTIN (D) BY 3
In the first vote, I was wrong. Incumbent Saxby Chambliss won a plurality, winning approximately 49.9%. However, in Georgia, you need 50% of the vote, plus one-a majority-to win. Thus, there will be a run-off on December 2, says the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. It's all hands on deck here: expect huge amounts of money-whatever's left in the war chest-from both campaigns, especially the national parties. But you have to wonder if blacks, who came out in droves for Obama-especially in DeKalb County-will come out to elect Martin in December. So, maybe I might be right in the second vote!

5. Oregon:
PREDICTION: JEFF MERKLEY (D) BY 5
Right now, I'm wrong. With 85% of the vote in (including 80% in from Portland and Multonomah County, and only 60% in from Eugene and Lane County-both Democratic strongholds), Jeff Merkley has been projected to defeat incumbent Gordon Smith's Senate seat. It may actually exceed my prediction by the time all the votes are counted.

4. Mississippi-B:
PREDICTION: ROGER WICKER (R) WINS BY "A FEW THOUSAND" OVER RONNIE MUSGROVE
I was waaay off on this one. The close polling a week ago in Mississippi's Special Election came out as a farce, as incumbent-by-two-years Roger Wicker defeated former Gov. Musgrove by 10 points.

3. North Carolina:
PREDICTION: KAY HAGAN (D) BY 3
The surpriser of the 2008 season did go the Democrats' way, as Kay Hagan won in a 9-point landslide, defeating incumbent Elizabeth Dole. Liddy's campaign tactic to tie State Sen. Hagan to the group, Godless Americans, and even insinuating that Hagan is an atheist, backfired-Hagan shot back at Dole's comment, saying that she has taught Sunday school for the last 5 years.

2. Minnesota:
PREDICTION: AL FRANKEN (D) BY 2
Another super-close race. With 99% of the vote in, incumbent Norm Coleman leads radio commentator and former SNL writer Al Franken by 336 votes-out of over 2.4 million. This initiates a statewide-recount, which probably will be over in a couple of weeks. My prediction: the absentees go overwhelmingly for Franken (who has actually been in Iraq and Afghanistan for the USO-Coleman, from my knowledge, has not gone to Iraq or Afghanistan), who wins by my margin.

1. Alaska:
PREDICTION: "I'LL TELL YOU IN A FEW DAYS"
Well, I forgot to tell you. But after Sen. Ted Stevens' conviction on seven felony counts dealing with ethics, I thought that challenger Mark Begich would win in a landslide. But don't think Stevens will trade in his suit and Incredible Hulk tie for an orange jumpsuit yet-with 99% of the vote in, Sen. Stevens leads by just over 3,000 votes. There are more votes coming in through early voting and through absentee ballots that may see Begich win this, but it will be especially close. I think that along with a "Bradley effect," the widely talked-about polling phenomenon, we have to add the "Stevens-Young effect": In the state of Alaska, people will say that they will not vote for those who were or are in ethics scandals (i.e. Stevens and House Republican Don Young, who won by 7 points in spite of polls saying it would go Ethan Berkowitz' way by near-double-digits), but will instead-causing a massive polling breakdown.

So, that's how the Senate races look. In the end, the Democrats will have at least a 57-43 majority in the House-enough to work with, especially when you consider that President-elect Obama may appoint a Republican such as George Voinovich (OH), Olympia Snowe (ME), or Arlen Specter (PA) to his Cabinet, allowing Democratic Govs. Ted Strickland, John Baldacci, or Ed Rendell, respectively, to appoint one of their own.

In other news, Democrats gained a governorship, with Jay Nixon winning the gubernatorial election in Missouri. Republicans gained a governorship, though-in Puerto Rico, with Luis Fortuño, former non-voting delegate, defeated Anibal Acevedo-Vila. Democrats now control 29 offices of governor, with 21 offices held by Republicans.

In the House, Democrats gained 24 seats (along with Puerto Rico's non-voting delegate), making a 259-176 majority. Democrats also gained, as of post, 4 State Houses, according to AP, bringing their control of state legislatures to a score of 27 to 14, with 7 ties and the nonpartisan Unicameral in Nebraska. Democrats won in New York State Senate, gaining control (with my state Senator, Malcolm A. Smith, becoming Majority Leader!!!), gained seats in Alaska, where they now officially hold a tie, and caused a split of the Ohio legislature, winning their Senate.

Here's a tentative map of the new State House control:


Expect a few new posts in the coming weeks, as we transition back to our normal posts.

We're getting closer...

...To Election Day. It's one hour away. Here's the latest polling data:

On Electoral-Vote, Obama has led 353-185 in the Electoral College for the last two days, picking up Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, in theory. The Senate (including Sens. Sanders (I-VT) and Lieberman (I-CT)) will theoretically be held by Democrats, 58-42, with Alaskan Mark Begich, the Udall cousins, Mark in Colorado and Tom in New Mexico, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, Kay Hagan in North Carolina, Jeff Merkley in Oregon, and Mark Warner in Virginia picking up seats in theory, with the battle between Al Franken and Norm Coleman in Minnesota being a statistical tie.

In the latest tracking polls...
- CBS News (Obama +13)
- Diageo (Obama +5)
- Gallup Expanded (Obama +9)
- IBD (Obama +2)
- Opinion Research (Obama +7)
- Pew (Obama +6)
- Rasmussem (Obama +5)
- Research 2000 (Obama +7)
- Washington Post/ABC News (Obama +11)
- Zogby (Obama +6)

FiveThirtyEight reports in the latest calculations that Obama will theoretically win 346.5-191.5, with a 98.1 possibility of victory, while the Senate will move 59.1-60.9Democratic. Obama will most likely win somewhere between 291-378 electoral votes. Among the more interesting simulations:
-Obama has a 31% likelihood of a landslide (>375 EV's)
-Obama has an 84.05% likelihood of winning the election while losing Ohio and Florida.

Some things to look at, hour by hour (all Eastern Time):

7:00: Polls close in Virginia, which will really be a bellwether for the way the race will go (along with having an important Senate race), Indiana, another swing state(which is generally one of the fastest to call), Kentucky-where there is a dogfight in the Senate between Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Bruce Lunsford-and Georgia, where there is another battle, this time between Jim Martin and incumbent Saxby Chambliss.

7:30: Three big states: Ohio, North Carolina (watch out in the Hagan/Liddy Dole race!) and West Virginia. 'Nuff said.

8:00: Polls close in Florida, Mississippi (home of a race between sitting senator Roger Wicker and former governor Ronnie Musgrove), Missouri, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.

8:30: Popcorn break as the numbers come in-perhaps a call???

9:00: Polls close in Arizona, Colorado (Mark Udall-Bob Schaffer race, along with a swing state), Louisiana (thrown into near-toss-up territory in the last few days), Minnesota (Franken-Coleman race), New Mexico (swing state and Tom Udall race), and South Dakota

9:40: My prediction for a virtual call.

10:00: Polls close in Iowa, Montana, and Nevada.

11:00: Polls close in California (look at the Prop 8 vote), North Dakota, and Oregon.

11:20: I go to sleep.

1:00 AM: Alaska polls close. You've got problems if you stay up this late.

Stay tuned for tomorrow's live blog, right here on Notepad. Also, if you're in the New York area, you can go to "Election Plaza" at Rockefeller Center, where you can see the NBC shows tape along with seeing the numbers come in at 30 Rock and the rink, or at Times Square, which will be the headquarters of ABC's coverage.

On the Importance of Service to Our Nation

In approximately 24-and-a-half hours, we will know the winner of this most historic election. Indeed, the two presidential candidates have become the most polarized candidtates since, in my opinion, 1800, when John Adams and Thomas Jefferson went at it. However, there is one thing in common: a dual call to service for the American people. For which I wholeheartedly agree: service to one's nation is not just a virtue, but a necessity. One must serve their nation, for they must give back to the country that bore them. The rights of the people are inalienable, nor are the responsibilities.

There is one single act that can somewhat absolve the need for service: voting. Voting allows for the change in power that is necessary if change is requested. As the Beastie Boys said, "You gotta fight for your right to party!", and you've got to fight for the right to change your government. For if someone retains power, we can complain all we want, but we had the ability to do something about it. In short: vote. It will help you in the long run. To quote Monk, "You'll thank me later."

However, we must serve beyond this point. Every point when there was a crisis in this nation-World War II and 9/11, for example-we came together to serve our nation and do our part. In World War II, we had our food rationed, children collected tin cans, and we all sold war bonds while women went to the workplace-and baseball, too-when the men were at war. After 9/11, we came together and made a stand against the people who attacked us (but that all changed when this president took advantage of it-but that's another post). And we must continue to serve. Be it in terms of volunteer fire and EMS departments, reading to children or senior citizens at a library, or what have you, doing one's part is a necessity.

Volunteer, and vote.

Top 5 Reasons to Vote for the candidates

I originally wished to make this two different posts, but due to time constraints, I had to consolidate...

Only 4 percent of the electorate in the United States has faced the ultimate voting dilemma-who in the world am I voting for? Indeed, this is a dilemma, for the reason that the candidates have shown their policies, their strategies, their views, their goals, and their biographies, to the best of their ability-and then comes the question aforementioned! In fact, as the New York Times reports, some undecideds have considered the use of a coin flip to decide their vote. Rather than using coin flipping, plucking petals from a flower, or using the ultimate decider- “Eeny, Meeny, Miny, Moe”-here’s some reasons to vote in either direction:

The Top 5 Reasons to Vote for Barack Obama (in ascending order):

5. He has voted judiciously: Sure, the National Review said that Obama was the 4th-most liberal member of the Senate. But why, then, would William F. Buckley endorse Obama? Because this report is a farce. Obama has crossed party lines in terms of CAFE miles-per-gallon standards, on foreign policy with Richard Lugar (R-IN), and even confirming John Roberts as Chief Justice. However, he voted against funding in Iraq because they didn’t have timetables, and was against ultra-right justice Samuel Alito.

4. He’s served in the community: Maybe this isn’t especially important in the grand scheme of things, but being a community organizer, he did have responsibilities-to help citizens get what was needed on a small scale. And he’s fought for this ever since.

3. If you’d like the environment to be changed: Obama is for putting more funding into alternative fuels, while still having clean coal resources and offshore drilling involved; however, the latter is more a spoke rather than a hub of the project. Indeed, Obama’s policy is not unlike the Pickens Plan, which I support.

2. If you want to end the war, he’s your guy: Sen. Obama has proposed a 16-month withdrawal from Iraq, with all troops eventually leaving the country. Instead of focusing on Iraq in the “War on Terror”, he will instead focus on Pakistan and Afghanistan, where Osama bin Laden probably is.

1. He’ll fight for the common worker: Being a site that advocates neo-populism-a return to Populist politics, fighting for the common worker-I believe it is important to view the economy by the common worker’s stance, and solving it using that standpoint. And the Obama campaign will do that-by giving a tax cut to those making under $200,000, and having those making 200-250 thousand not having a tax increase. The increase only comes to those making over a quarter-million dollars a year. Also, he’ll strive to increase jobs, especially in terms of infrastructure and “green-collar” jobs.

Top 5 Reasons to Support John McCain:
5. If you don’t have healthcare and you can get a policy really, really cheap: McCain will give a tax credit of $5,000 to families that do not have healthcare-but will tax all benefits given by employers. So, if you get a good plan, you’ll be taxed-and the net wouldn’t be good, as your taxes would, in reality, increase. But, if you have absolutely nothing, and you’ve got a friend in the healthcare industry, you’re in pretty good straits under McCain’s plan.

4. You’re pro-life: McCain is against Roe v. Wade, and would appoint pro-life justices, but would want it decided by the state. McCain is for choice in the cases of rape, incest, and the life of the mother-but not the health of the mother. Gov. Palin, on the other hand, is against all types of abortion.

3. You work in the oil or nuclear industry: McCain’s energy plan is centered around two things: offshore drilling, and building forty nuclear plants within four years. Ultimately, McCain’s plan is merely a ploy to gain the funding to the oil and nuclear lobbies (just as Obama is for gaining the funding of the clean coal and oil lobbies, I’ll admit), but the rest is fairly solid: giving a prize to those who find new ways to lower emissions and further increasing CAFE standards, for example, are good policies from where I’m standing. Just one question to ask Sen. McCain: Where the hell are you going to put the nuclear reactors?

2. If you are a soldier in Iraq who supports the war: McCain supports seeing what is going on in Iraq in January, and going from there. Of course, based on his “100 years” idea, he might be insinuating opening up permanent bases in Iraq to keep the peace. It looks like the tide is turning militarily, but is it turning politically?

1. If you make a lot of money: McCain supports giving tax cuts-good. McCain also supports giving the largest tax cuts to the rich-good if you’re rich.

I do care who you vote for, yes. But I also care about how you vote. Thus, tomorrow’s post includes voting: “On the Importance of Service to Our Nation”. Remember to vote, and then read Tuesday night’s live blog, beginning at approximately 6:30 PM right here. Expect some regular “issues” posts, along with a Thanksgiving post, “The Paddys”, and much more as the months rage on.