Election Math and Aftermath

Hopefully, we will all remember where we were at 11:02 PM Eastern Time, on Tuesday, November 4. Some of you may have been in Chicago's Grant Park, or on Harlem's 125th Street, or in Times Square, or quite possibly just outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue-where Barack Obama will reside, effective at noon on January 20, 2009. Obama won, at post time, 364 electoral votes to McCain's 163-with one electoral vote still in doubt, that being the electoral vote of Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District-which Obama looks to win, according to Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight and the Omaha World-Herald. Obama won with a staggering 64 million votes-52% of the popular vote.

Here's a look at the Electoral Map:


The real struggle, though, is in the Senate. Let's take a look at the ten races I saw as the closest, and if I got my predictions right:


10. Colorado:
PREDICTION: MARK UDALL (D) BY 15
Okay, so it was closer than I thought. Udall did win in a landslide, though, by nine points over former congressman Bob Schaffer. Colorado was a big state for the Dems this year; they made their gambit by holding the DNC in Denver, and the west went with them.

9. Texas:
PREDICTION: JOHN CORNYN (R) BY 7
And this one wasn't as close as I thought. Although Obama campaigned more there than most Dems, and I thought that the youth (especially in the Austin area) was underpolled in an already close race (according to polls), challenger Rick Noriega just couldn't win here, losing by 12. Chalk it up to left-wing wishful thinking.

8. New Hampshire:
PREDICTION: JEANNE SHAHEEN (D) BY 6
Finally, one where I was close! Former Governor Shaheen beat incumbent Sununu by 7 points!

7. Kentucky:
PREDICTION: BRUCE LUNSFORD (D) BY 1
Alas, sometimes a Republican can win. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell got in very hot water in this race, which wasn't called until late in the evening. But Bruce Lunsord couldn't eke this one out: McConnell by 6.

6. Georgia:
PREDICTION: JIM MARTIN (D) BY 3
In the first vote, I was wrong. Incumbent Saxby Chambliss won a plurality, winning approximately 49.9%. However, in Georgia, you need 50% of the vote, plus one-a majority-to win. Thus, there will be a run-off on December 2, says the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. It's all hands on deck here: expect huge amounts of money-whatever's left in the war chest-from both campaigns, especially the national parties. But you have to wonder if blacks, who came out in droves for Obama-especially in DeKalb County-will come out to elect Martin in December. So, maybe I might be right in the second vote!

5. Oregon:
PREDICTION: JEFF MERKLEY (D) BY 5
Right now, I'm wrong. With 85% of the vote in (including 80% in from Portland and Multonomah County, and only 60% in from Eugene and Lane County-both Democratic strongholds), Jeff Merkley has been projected to defeat incumbent Gordon Smith's Senate seat. It may actually exceed my prediction by the time all the votes are counted.

4. Mississippi-B:
PREDICTION: ROGER WICKER (R) WINS BY "A FEW THOUSAND" OVER RONNIE MUSGROVE
I was waaay off on this one. The close polling a week ago in Mississippi's Special Election came out as a farce, as incumbent-by-two-years Roger Wicker defeated former Gov. Musgrove by 10 points.

3. North Carolina:
PREDICTION: KAY HAGAN (D) BY 3
The surpriser of the 2008 season did go the Democrats' way, as Kay Hagan won in a 9-point landslide, defeating incumbent Elizabeth Dole. Liddy's campaign tactic to tie State Sen. Hagan to the group, Godless Americans, and even insinuating that Hagan is an atheist, backfired-Hagan shot back at Dole's comment, saying that she has taught Sunday school for the last 5 years.

2. Minnesota:
PREDICTION: AL FRANKEN (D) BY 2
Another super-close race. With 99% of the vote in, incumbent Norm Coleman leads radio commentator and former SNL writer Al Franken by 336 votes-out of over 2.4 million. This initiates a statewide-recount, which probably will be over in a couple of weeks. My prediction: the absentees go overwhelmingly for Franken (who has actually been in Iraq and Afghanistan for the USO-Coleman, from my knowledge, has not gone to Iraq or Afghanistan), who wins by my margin.

1. Alaska:
PREDICTION: "I'LL TELL YOU IN A FEW DAYS"
Well, I forgot to tell you. But after Sen. Ted Stevens' conviction on seven felony counts dealing with ethics, I thought that challenger Mark Begich would win in a landslide. But don't think Stevens will trade in his suit and Incredible Hulk tie for an orange jumpsuit yet-with 99% of the vote in, Sen. Stevens leads by just over 3,000 votes. There are more votes coming in through early voting and through absentee ballots that may see Begich win this, but it will be especially close. I think that along with a "Bradley effect," the widely talked-about polling phenomenon, we have to add the "Stevens-Young effect": In the state of Alaska, people will say that they will not vote for those who were or are in ethics scandals (i.e. Stevens and House Republican Don Young, who won by 7 points in spite of polls saying it would go Ethan Berkowitz' way by near-double-digits), but will instead-causing a massive polling breakdown.

So, that's how the Senate races look. In the end, the Democrats will have at least a 57-43 majority in the House-enough to work with, especially when you consider that President-elect Obama may appoint a Republican such as George Voinovich (OH), Olympia Snowe (ME), or Arlen Specter (PA) to his Cabinet, allowing Democratic Govs. Ted Strickland, John Baldacci, or Ed Rendell, respectively, to appoint one of their own.

In other news, Democrats gained a governorship, with Jay Nixon winning the gubernatorial election in Missouri. Republicans gained a governorship, though-in Puerto Rico, with Luis Fortuño, former non-voting delegate, defeated Anibal Acevedo-Vila. Democrats now control 29 offices of governor, with 21 offices held by Republicans.

In the House, Democrats gained 24 seats (along with Puerto Rico's non-voting delegate), making a 259-176 majority. Democrats also gained, as of post, 4 State Houses, according to AP, bringing their control of state legislatures to a score of 27 to 14, with 7 ties and the nonpartisan Unicameral in Nebraska. Democrats won in New York State Senate, gaining control (with my state Senator, Malcolm A. Smith, becoming Majority Leader!!!), gained seats in Alaska, where they now officially hold a tie, and caused a split of the Ohio legislature, winning their Senate.

Here's a tentative map of the new State House control:


Expect a few new posts in the coming weeks, as we transition back to our normal posts.