A few things I wanted to talk about, now that we've had time to think about the debate:
First of all, Palin said 21 things that were either misstatements, things that were accidentally alack of fact, or outright lies, as reported by MSNBC. That's a non-fact every 4 1/2 minutes! Among her statements alack of fact: It's McKiernan, not McClellan who is the General in Afghanistan, she was against divesting funds for Sudan from the Alaska budget (umm...this would be called a lie), troops in Iraq are not down to pre-surge levels.
Second, Palin sounded (and acted) astoundingly like George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004-even using his campaign slogan, "A reformer with results" in one of her responses! She even did the winking-which Bush did in the town-hall debate in 2004! I'm surprised that she didn't start going off on how being governor was "hard work" or saying that she's a "compassionate conservative."
Third, Palin's record shows that she's definitely not what one would perceive to be a maverick (By the way, next feature post: On Maverick Status): she was an alumna of GOPAC, the Gingrich-nurtured PAC whose mission is, "the premier training organization for Republican candidates for elected office." Not exactly a beacon of change when her political education comes from the home of GOP spawn.
Finally, some great polling data from two sources I'm going to include in the "Favorite Links" section of The 'Pad: electoral-vote.com reports that, if put in an Electoral College format, Obama beats McCain in a landslide, 338-185 (with the state of North Carolina now tied), and a Senate of 58-42 Democratic, and FiveThirtyEight.com reports that Obama leads the Electoral College, 333.2-204.8, that Obama has a winning percentage(probability that he will win the election), of 84.4%, and that the Senate will have a composition of 58-42, as well. Obama has an 68% chance of winning Florida, an 80% of winning Virginia, an 87% chance of winning PA, a 67% of winning Ohio, and an 89% chance of winning Michigan, while the possibility of an unheard-of North Carolina win is 50-50.
Before I end, here are some posts that will be coming soon on Notepad:
-Senate Swami: Predictions in the hot Senate races this November
-On Maverick Status
-Campaign 2008 Spotlights on John McCain, Barack Obama, Sarah Palin, and Joe Biden
-On Our Duty to Impeach the President
-And, of course, pre- and post-debate coverage of the final two debates between Senators McCain and Obama(I'll try to do a live-blog for the final debate at Hofstra)
04 October 2008
03 October 2008
90 Minutes After the Debate (47½ Hours Until Tina Fey)
(This post was begun at 11:59 Eastern Daylight Time, and completed at 12:32 EDT. The time of upload is listed below)
Well, it certainly wasn’t a game-changer. By next week, tonight’s vice-presidential debate will be in the past and probably won’t be talked about in this 24-hour news cycle. Neither Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) nor Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) were able to meet the burden of true victory-that not only had they brought their own selves to a higher level, showing that they could be the vice president, but also that their running mates could be president, and that their opponents could not-both were able to meet the burden of guaranteeing that neither would truly lose-in other words, no one was a flop. Here’s the opinion from the Big 3, the Cable 3, along with PBS’ The News Hour(of which moderator Gwen Ifill-who, as usual, did a wonderful job-is a senior correspondent) and Mark Halperin of TIME magazine:
ABC: Both did well
NBC: An even debate, Palin gained title of “better surrogate”, but no effect would come of debate in the long run
(CBS I’ll talk about later)
CNN: Palin did a good job of refuting the CBS interview; Biden “had the best debate performance of his life,” and won the debate overall.
MSNBC: Fairly neutral
Fox News: Neck-and-neck; Palin led part of debate and “passed the test”
The News Hour: Previous interviews with Palin will “disappear”; Biden had solid performance; neutral debate.
M. Halperin’s The Page: Palin and Biden tied; B Grade for both.
Here’s some polling data to go with it:
CBS: Dial poll (tick-poll, as I call it) was Biden’s all night; many undecideds leaned to Biden; most important issue of night (and issue that got highest tick-poll results) was Iraq and Biden’s remarks on it. Poll showed 46-21 Biden victory, with one-third of those polled deeming it a tie.
CNN: Tick-poll focus group had 1 or 2 each solidified for McCain and Obama from tonight’s debate; ½ said they were leaning Obama...Poll results (all with margin of error of +/- 4 %) show that by a margin of 51-36, Biden did the best job; 64 percent saw Biden do better than expectations, 20% saying he met expectations, and 14% saying he was below expectations; 84 percent saw Palin as above expectations, 8% meeting expectations, 7% saying she was below expectations...of those who were “like you”, poll leaned Biden; in terms of “in touch”, 50-44 Biden; those who were a “typical politician”, 70-21 Biden; “bringing change”, 53-42 Biden. Of Palin’s qualifications, originally it was 54-42 saying she was unqualified, after the debate it is now 53-46 saying she is unqualified.
MSNBC: had only one poll, stating it was 46-21 Biden, with 3% deeming it a tie.
Here’s my take, on the debate as a whole:
>Too many times I was yelling at the TV at Governor Palin, telling her either to answer the question, show respect, or pronounce nuclear (that’s NEW-CLEE-AR, not NUKE-YOU-LAR) correctly; by the first half-hour, I had given “Intangibles” to Biden (more on that later).
>While Palin was more on the defensive about Sen. McCain’s record, Biden not only attacked Senator McCain directly, but linked him to policies of Bush and Cheney; the latter was, in my opinion, the prescient attack of the entire debate.
>There was a lot more dialogue compared to the last debate; Palin wanted to be warm and cozy with Biden, asking at the onset if she could call him “Joe,” but often came off as pretentious.
>Then two turning points of the debate were Biden’s slaughter of McCain on Iraq (this was not only my personal turning point, but also the point where tick polls reached near-capacity), and the closing statement, as he brought it all back home, not only in terms of linking, for one last time, McCain’s policies to Bush, but also bringing it home, as he did often tonight, to Scranton and Wilmington. Just before the closing statements, I said to myself, “Joe’s got to bring his back to Scranton, he’s got to bring it back to the train rides,” the latter meaning what he hears with the common worker on his nightly commute back to Delaware, and he did it; the second point was the true clincher.
>Tonight’s “Reagan-o-meter”, the amount of times a Republican candidate references Ronald Reagan, is 3: two name-drops, and a use of a Reagan quote. The last debate, it was 4, so perhaps Sen. McCain thinks higher of Reagan than Gov. Palin.
Here’s my take on the individual issues discussed tonight:
1) The Economy: I thought that Biden owned the discussion on the economy; by diversifying his claims about the economy, he was able to bring out the entire Obama plan, while Palin was stuck running around in circles on tax cuts.
2)Energy and Environment: I originally gave it to Biden whole-hog, but I’m going to ultimately call it a near tie, leaning Biden; Palin kept coming back to energy, and was pretty knowledgeable, but kept coming back all the time to drilling in Alaska, while Biden presented the whole field.
3)Social Issues: This one was a quickie, and it was a flat-footed tie; I really can’t find anything more to discuss other than the fact that they both agree on same-sex marriage and civil rights for same-sex couples; against the first, for the second.
4) Foreign Policy: This one was going to Biden the entire time, featuring the big turning point of the debate.
5) Closing statements: Biden made the best closing statement, bringing his message altogether, and tying it with his main story.
6)Intangibles: Biden looked more vice presidential (whatever that means), he was more dignified, and seemed to have more poise, while Palin seemed like someone picked off the street in terms of her preparedness and ability to stare Biden down.
In all, the victor was Biden, but not in a runaway fashion, nor a ‘game-changing’ result.
On Tuesday, October 7, at Belmont University in Nashville, TN, Senators McCain and Obama will return for the lone ‘town-hall’ debate, moderated by NBC’s Tom Brokaw; on Wednesday, October 15, the final presidential debate, with the emphasis on domestic policy, will take place at Hofstra University on Long Island, NY, moderated by CBS’ Bob Scheiffer. Both of these debates will take place at 9:00 PM ET, and will be on the Big 3, the Cable 3, PBS, C-SPAN, and many, many other networks along with radio broadcasts.
Stay tuned to Notepad for pre- and post-debate analysis and information for the remaining debates.
Well, it certainly wasn’t a game-changer. By next week, tonight’s vice-presidential debate will be in the past and probably won’t be talked about in this 24-hour news cycle. Neither Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) nor Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) were able to meet the burden of true victory-that not only had they brought their own selves to a higher level, showing that they could be the vice president, but also that their running mates could be president, and that their opponents could not-both were able to meet the burden of guaranteeing that neither would truly lose-in other words, no one was a flop. Here’s the opinion from the Big 3, the Cable 3, along with PBS’ The News Hour(of which moderator Gwen Ifill-who, as usual, did a wonderful job-is a senior correspondent) and Mark Halperin of TIME magazine:
ABC: Both did well
NBC: An even debate, Palin gained title of “better surrogate”, but no effect would come of debate in the long run
(CBS I’ll talk about later)
CNN: Palin did a good job of refuting the CBS interview; Biden “had the best debate performance of his life,” and won the debate overall.
MSNBC: Fairly neutral
Fox News: Neck-and-neck; Palin led part of debate and “passed the test”
The News Hour: Previous interviews with Palin will “disappear”; Biden had solid performance; neutral debate.
M. Halperin’s The Page: Palin and Biden tied; B Grade for both.
Here’s some polling data to go with it:
CBS: Dial poll (tick-poll, as I call it) was Biden’s all night; many undecideds leaned to Biden; most important issue of night (and issue that got highest tick-poll results) was Iraq and Biden’s remarks on it. Poll showed 46-21 Biden victory, with one-third of those polled deeming it a tie.
CNN: Tick-poll focus group had 1 or 2 each solidified for McCain and Obama from tonight’s debate; ½ said they were leaning Obama...Poll results (all with margin of error of +/- 4 %) show that by a margin of 51-36, Biden did the best job; 64 percent saw Biden do better than expectations, 20% saying he met expectations, and 14% saying he was below expectations; 84 percent saw Palin as above expectations, 8% meeting expectations, 7% saying she was below expectations...of those who were “like you”, poll leaned Biden; in terms of “in touch”, 50-44 Biden; those who were a “typical politician”, 70-21 Biden; “bringing change”, 53-42 Biden. Of Palin’s qualifications, originally it was 54-42 saying she was unqualified, after the debate it is now 53-46 saying she is unqualified.
MSNBC: had only one poll, stating it was 46-21 Biden, with 3% deeming it a tie.
Here’s my take, on the debate as a whole:
>Too many times I was yelling at the TV at Governor Palin, telling her either to answer the question, show respect, or pronounce nuclear (that’s NEW-CLEE-AR, not NUKE-YOU-LAR) correctly; by the first half-hour, I had given “Intangibles” to Biden (more on that later).
>While Palin was more on the defensive about Sen. McCain’s record, Biden not only attacked Senator McCain directly, but linked him to policies of Bush and Cheney; the latter was, in my opinion, the prescient attack of the entire debate.
>There was a lot more dialogue compared to the last debate; Palin wanted to be warm and cozy with Biden, asking at the onset if she could call him “Joe,” but often came off as pretentious.
>Then two turning points of the debate were Biden’s slaughter of McCain on Iraq (this was not only my personal turning point, but also the point where tick polls reached near-capacity), and the closing statement, as he brought it all back home, not only in terms of linking, for one last time, McCain’s policies to Bush, but also bringing it home, as he did often tonight, to Scranton and Wilmington. Just before the closing statements, I said to myself, “Joe’s got to bring his back to Scranton, he’s got to bring it back to the train rides,” the latter meaning what he hears with the common worker on his nightly commute back to Delaware, and he did it; the second point was the true clincher.
>Tonight’s “Reagan-o-meter”, the amount of times a Republican candidate references Ronald Reagan, is 3: two name-drops, and a use of a Reagan quote. The last debate, it was 4, so perhaps Sen. McCain thinks higher of Reagan than Gov. Palin.
Here’s my take on the individual issues discussed tonight:
1) The Economy: I thought that Biden owned the discussion on the economy; by diversifying his claims about the economy, he was able to bring out the entire Obama plan, while Palin was stuck running around in circles on tax cuts.
2)Energy and Environment: I originally gave it to Biden whole-hog, but I’m going to ultimately call it a near tie, leaning Biden; Palin kept coming back to energy, and was pretty knowledgeable, but kept coming back all the time to drilling in Alaska, while Biden presented the whole field.
3)Social Issues: This one was a quickie, and it was a flat-footed tie; I really can’t find anything more to discuss other than the fact that they both agree on same-sex marriage and civil rights for same-sex couples; against the first, for the second.
4) Foreign Policy: This one was going to Biden the entire time, featuring the big turning point of the debate.
5) Closing statements: Biden made the best closing statement, bringing his message altogether, and tying it with his main story.
6)Intangibles: Biden looked more vice presidential (whatever that means), he was more dignified, and seemed to have more poise, while Palin seemed like someone picked off the street in terms of her preparedness and ability to stare Biden down.
In all, the victor was Biden, but not in a runaway fashion, nor a ‘game-changing’ result.
On Tuesday, October 7, at Belmont University in Nashville, TN, Senators McCain and Obama will return for the lone ‘town-hall’ debate, moderated by NBC’s Tom Brokaw; on Wednesday, October 15, the final presidential debate, with the emphasis on domestic policy, will take place at Hofstra University on Long Island, NY, moderated by CBS’ Bob Scheiffer. Both of these debates will take place at 9:00 PM ET, and will be on the Big 3, the Cable 3, PBS, C-SPAN, and many, many other networks along with radio broadcasts.
Stay tuned to Notepad for pre- and post-debate analysis and information for the remaining debates.
02 October 2008
25 Minutes Until the Debate
(This writing was begun at 8:35 PM Eastern Daylight Time, and completed at 9:00 PM EDT; it was uploaded at the time below)
25 Minutes Until the Debate
Many a time they speak about the ‘game changer’: a variable-an ‘x-factor’ so volatile that it can dissolve on previous spectrum of thinking, and create a whole new one. Tonight may be that ‘game-changer’ in St. Louis, Missouri, as Washington University will be the site of the lone vice-presidential debate, between Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) and Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK). Or, better yet, they’re going against each other’s running mates. There is no possibility that they will only go after themselves-they may not go after each other altogether, making it a prime-time edition of a Sunday morning talk show, a battle of surrogates. Either way, the ‘game changer’ most likely hinges on the performance of Gov. Palin, who will either sink the chances of the McCain campaign, or be the savior of the GOP, snapping back the momentum at a point where momentum changes so little. Here’s some things to look at:
Palin’s Going In With the Bar Low: The past two weeks, every time Gov. Palin said something, she plumbed more depths in rhetoric. Palin bombed the interview with Charlie Gibson of ABC News, Katie Couric of CBS News (just name one! One Supreme Court case!), and even Sean Hannity of Fox News. Apparently, not only is Tina Fey of 30 Rock and Saturday Night Live getting laughs-from her interview transcripts-but even has lost the support of The View commentator, Survivor contestant and It seems as if the McCain-Palin ticket is pulling something much like Leo McGarry of The West Wing, bringing expectations down enough so that a mediocre performance is a win. But this is a tapeworm playing limbo here-the bar’s near the floor of the Field House Gymnasium at Washington University of St. Louis as possible.
Palin’s Going in with little preparation: Gov. Palin did little prep work for tonight’s debate, holding camp for just a week, and holding it near a creek (not exactly the place for debate, but definitely the place for meditation and tai chi).
Biden’s Going to be Careful: If Sen. Biden attacks Sarah Palin in any way, he will be derided as being sexist. However, eventually he has to attack-otherwise, he’ll be considered too calm. So he’s got to pick his fights very carefully; which will have the biggest effect without producing the biggest harm-the biggest pro-to-con ratio?
So, here’s my take on what they have to do:
Governor Palin: She’s got to breathe, and stay awake, and not look like a total idiot. If she does that, she doesn’t win, she just meets her burden. For a win, she has to show that she has experience, and that if she doesn’t have experience, she can at least compensate for it with intelligence and savvy-while explaining how that doesn’t work for Senator Obama. She also has to look vice-presidential.
Sen. Biden: The onus was previously on Gov. Palin, but now the burden is previously on Sen. Biden. He’s got to bring zingers to Sen. McCain, but also bring down Palin-in other words, say as little words as possible, while making Governor Palin cry by 10:30 PM tonight.
Stay tuned circa midnight for tonight's post-debate report on Notepad-I'll give my results and the results of the Big 3 and the Cable 3.
25 Minutes Until the Debate
Many a time they speak about the ‘game changer’: a variable-an ‘x-factor’ so volatile that it can dissolve on previous spectrum of thinking, and create a whole new one. Tonight may be that ‘game-changer’ in St. Louis, Missouri, as Washington University will be the site of the lone vice-presidential debate, between Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) and Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK). Or, better yet, they’re going against each other’s running mates. There is no possibility that they will only go after themselves-they may not go after each other altogether, making it a prime-time edition of a Sunday morning talk show, a battle of surrogates. Either way, the ‘game changer’ most likely hinges on the performance of Gov. Palin, who will either sink the chances of the McCain campaign, or be the savior of the GOP, snapping back the momentum at a point where momentum changes so little. Here’s some things to look at:
Palin’s Going In With the Bar Low: The past two weeks, every time Gov. Palin said something, she plumbed more depths in rhetoric. Palin bombed the interview with Charlie Gibson of ABC News, Katie Couric of CBS News (just name one! One Supreme Court case!), and even Sean Hannity of Fox News. Apparently, not only is Tina Fey of 30 Rock and Saturday Night Live getting laughs-from her interview transcripts-but even has lost the support of The View commentator, Survivor contestant and It seems as if the McCain-Palin ticket is pulling something much like Leo McGarry of The West Wing, bringing expectations down enough so that a mediocre performance is a win. But this is a tapeworm playing limbo here-the bar’s near the floor of the Field House Gymnasium at Washington University of St. Louis as possible.
Palin’s Going in with little preparation: Gov. Palin did little prep work for tonight’s debate, holding camp for just a week, and holding it near a creek (not exactly the place for debate, but definitely the place for meditation and tai chi).
Biden’s Going to be Careful: If Sen. Biden attacks Sarah Palin in any way, he will be derided as being sexist. However, eventually he has to attack-otherwise, he’ll be considered too calm. So he’s got to pick his fights very carefully; which will have the biggest effect without producing the biggest harm-the biggest pro-to-con ratio?
So, here’s my take on what they have to do:
Governor Palin: She’s got to breathe, and stay awake, and not look like a total idiot. If she does that, she doesn’t win, she just meets her burden. For a win, she has to show that she has experience, and that if she doesn’t have experience, she can at least compensate for it with intelligence and savvy-while explaining how that doesn’t work for Senator Obama. She also has to look vice-presidential.
Sen. Biden: The onus was previously on Gov. Palin, but now the burden is previously on Sen. Biden. He’s got to bring zingers to Sen. McCain, but also bring down Palin-in other words, say as little words as possible, while making Governor Palin cry by 10:30 PM tonight.
Stay tuned circa midnight for tonight's post-debate report on Notepad-I'll give my results and the results of the Big 3 and the Cable 3.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
