Make it 4 for 4.
Senator John McCain needed a huge momentum swing in tonight's debate; he needed a win with both burdens-the burden to not lose, and the burden to truly win. But Senator Barack Obama would have none of that, counterbalancing McCain's plans with a solid set of his own, and taking attacks in stride, while making his own against McCain.
Here are the decisions from the Network 3, the Cable 3, PBS' The News Hour, Mark Halperin of TIME magazine's "The Page", and Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post's "The Fix":
CBS: McCain looked disrespectful and fatigued; not Obama's best performance, but still a win.
NBC: Not a game changer; fairly neutral debate.
ABC: Obama "perfected the 'rope-a-dope'"; McCain couldn't change momentum, but still performed well.
CNN: Lean Obama; McCain looks better than last debate; "worst debate" for Obama
MSNBC: Obama win; big win on intangibles; McCain didn't attack directly.
Fox News: Obama clearly won Miami focus group; panel disagreed.
The News Hour: Neither elaborated on the economy; a tie.
Halperin: McCain wins, A- to B; "does it matter?"
Cillizza: McCain did not get "knockout blow", but did perform very well.
I also have CNN's polling data (there's more today!):
All polls have a margin of error of +/- 4%, with the breakdown of those polled being 40% Democrats, 30% Republicans, and 30% independents.
Who did the better job?: Obama, 58%-31%
Favorability Ratings:
Obama, originally 63-35 favorable, is now 66-33 favorable
McCain, originally 51-45 favorable, is now a 49-49 tie
On party breakdown, Obama won Democrats 88%-5%, independents 57%-31%, with McCain winning Republicans by an underwhelming 68%-18%.
On who will fix the economy, 59% believed Obama would fix it better, compared to 35% for McCain; on Healthcare, 62-31 Obama, and on taxes, 56-41 Obama.
On who portrayed themselves as the better leader, Obama won 56-35, and 70% found Obama more likeable, compared to 22% who found McCain more likeable.
Here's my notes on tonight's debate:
>Obama showed that he could present himself on a variety of issues, including on social issues; his answer on abortion was probably the clincher of the night, as he substantiated his opinion rather than just simply asserting.
>McCain was able to diversify his claims on education, which was important, as he went beyond simple talking points-but it was something I thought Obama did well throughout.
>I think that every news station got it right when they said that the winner of tonight's debate was "Joe the Plumber", the Ohio voter (and McCain supporter) that spoke with Sen. Obama yesterday and made headline news in the New York Post. "Joe the Plumber" is now Sen. McCain's best friend, as he made 21 separate references (with Obama making a few in retort) to the man-1 reference every 4 minutes and 15 seconds; in contrast, he only said "my friends" once, and he never used the word "maverick". Could this be a shift in the McCain-and the American-lexicon?
>McCain attacked on Ayers and on ACORN, but Obama did the most important thing-he rose above it, showing that at least one glimpse of that "changing of politics" is still there. McCain just couldn't stick those claims to him.
Here are my round-by-round assessments on the victor of tonight's debate:
Economy: While Obama was able to diversify, McCain came right around in circles. Obama was also able to tie McCain to Bush. Win Obama.
Campaign Strategies: This one goes to Obama, because McCain really could not win unless Obama truly got screwed from claims of his associations with Ayers. Knocked down statements about Ayers, ACORN, and Rep. John Lewis, while going after McCain on the statements made at his rallies.
Energy: Again, Obama was able to diversify his claims-while McCain was kind of stuck showcasing nuclear energy and offshore driling (although he did a better job of bringing other things to the forefront), Obama was able to show the broad spectrum of the energy debate, and how he would implement a variety of alternative energy sources, along with showing the need for fuel efficiency, which had the CNN "tick-polls" buzzing-it was roofing for about a minute. Win Obama, but it was kept close by McCain.
Healthcare: This segment was a true turning point for Obama. He was able to present his plan, while continuing to deride McCain's. Meanwhile, McCain was on defense more than offense about his plan. Win Obama.
Social Issues (Abortion): This one was a slight win for Obama, for the reason (as stated above) that Obama could truly go in-depth on his reasoning to support abortion, along with refuting claims of his prior views in Springfield, while McCain gave a simple assertion.
Education: This one I viewed as a tie. Both candidates presented their views clearly and well and, while I support Obama's policy (but not as vigorously as the rest of his policies), I was pleasantly surprised that McCain sees more than just vouchers as a way to get out of things. An important attack by Obama was on Phil Gramm, who basically said that the youth was a special interest group and not all special interest groups can be attended to.
Intangibles: As in the prior debates, I gave the win here to Obama in the first half-hour. McCain didn't look at Obama until the second half-hour, was sighing often, and kept interrupting Obama when he spoke.
Overall victor: Obama, but McCain put up a good fight-this one isn't the "game changer", but I think that, instead of a "win by knockout", it'll be a "win by decision" for Obama, contuing the sports analogy, Obama has "run the clock out" by providing no positive effect for McCain this evening.
Stay tuned to Notepad for Campaign 2008 Spotlights on the four major candidates, at least 4 feature posts, a handicap of the senatorial elections across the land, what really happens in the Electoral College, and a special Election Night live blog.
16 October 2008
14 October 2008
360 Minutes Before the Debate
After three straight Obama/Biden wins, John McCain and the GOP are desperately trying to swing their momentum. The Electoral College projections have been at their highest point so far this campaign, with Obama leading 361.4-176.6 on FiveThirtyEight and 357-181 on Electoral-Vote, not to mention an almost 96% chance of an Obama victory. Tonight's debate at 9:00 PM at Hofstra University may be the last chance for the McCain campaign to swing the momentum back. Tonight's theme is domestic policy; it's been a large part of all the debates so far, and it seems like both are getting better at this portion of the debate.
Here's what I think should be looked at in tonight's debate:
>Will he or won't he?: That's the question that everyone's asking of John McCain, who's gone negative, gone more negative, and has now had to backtrack and pick up the mud he slung over the past week on '60s Weathermen leader William Ayers, whom Obama had worked with in the 1990s. At rallies last week in Ohio, McCain had to confront claims from supporters that Obama was "an Arab", "a terrorist", and that we have to fear an Obama Administration. Also, political flames have been stoked by lower-level members of the GOP, such as the Virginia head of the Republican Party, who compared Sen. Obama to Osama bin Laden, because both "have friends who bombed the Pentagon." If McCain doesn't attack in tonight's debate, it will only show the hypocrisy of his campaign. However, if he does go negative, will Sen. Obama fight back with, say, the Keating Five scandal, or delving into what Rolling Stone magazine delved into in their newest issue on Sen. McCain's military record?
>Does Obama have an advantage?: With tonight's debate being about domestic policy, something Sen. Obama and the Democrats generally have an advantage on, Obama seems to have the edge in tonight's debate. However, with recent economic changes and in the past week-and-a-half, through an economic roller coaster ride (first 1500 points down last week, including a 777-point drop, then 953 points up yesterday alone, and now, at press time, an over 500-point drop in the last two days), a global bailout in Europe and a focused bailout in the U.S., the economic meltdown of Iceland, and the seemingly global endorsement of regulation with the awarding of the Nobel Prize in Economics to Paul Krugman, it is important now more than ever that we truly see the economic policy of the two candidates. With the microscope put on, we'll see how Obama and McCain do.
>Does Obama have home-field?: With tonight's debate in Democratic stronghold New York, it will be interesting to see how the crowd melds tonight's debate.
Tonight's debate, at 9:00 PM Eastern Time, from the Mack Sports Center at Hofstra University on Long Island, NY, will be moderated by Bob Scheiffer, former host of the CBS Evening News and longtime host of Face the Nation. Stay tuned to Notepad for a special live blog coinciding with tonight's debate, starting at 8:45 PM. Then, expect circa midnight a post-debate wrap-up, with in-depth analysis from myself, the Network 3, the Cable 3, and more, along with polls from the major networks.
Here's what I think should be looked at in tonight's debate:
>Will he or won't he?: That's the question that everyone's asking of John McCain, who's gone negative, gone more negative, and has now had to backtrack and pick up the mud he slung over the past week on '60s Weathermen leader William Ayers, whom Obama had worked with in the 1990s. At rallies last week in Ohio, McCain had to confront claims from supporters that Obama was "an Arab", "a terrorist", and that we have to fear an Obama Administration. Also, political flames have been stoked by lower-level members of the GOP, such as the Virginia head of the Republican Party, who compared Sen. Obama to Osama bin Laden, because both "have friends who bombed the Pentagon." If McCain doesn't attack in tonight's debate, it will only show the hypocrisy of his campaign. However, if he does go negative, will Sen. Obama fight back with, say, the Keating Five scandal, or delving into what Rolling Stone magazine delved into in their newest issue on Sen. McCain's military record?
>Does Obama have an advantage?: With tonight's debate being about domestic policy, something Sen. Obama and the Democrats generally have an advantage on, Obama seems to have the edge in tonight's debate. However, with recent economic changes and in the past week-and-a-half, through an economic roller coaster ride (first 1500 points down last week, including a 777-point drop, then 953 points up yesterday alone, and now, at press time, an over 500-point drop in the last two days), a global bailout in Europe and a focused bailout in the U.S., the economic meltdown of Iceland, and the seemingly global endorsement of regulation with the awarding of the Nobel Prize in Economics to Paul Krugman, it is important now more than ever that we truly see the economic policy of the two candidates. With the microscope put on, we'll see how Obama and McCain do.
>Does Obama have home-field?: With tonight's debate in Democratic stronghold New York, it will be interesting to see how the crowd melds tonight's debate.
Tonight's debate, at 9:00 PM Eastern Time, from the Mack Sports Center at Hofstra University on Long Island, NY, will be moderated by Bob Scheiffer, former host of the CBS Evening News and longtime host of Face the Nation. Stay tuned to Notepad for a special live blog coinciding with tonight's debate, starting at 8:45 PM. Then, expect circa midnight a post-debate wrap-up, with in-depth analysis from myself, the Network 3, the Cable 3, and more, along with polls from the major networks.
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