Before we begin with the regularly scheduled post-debate remarks after I settled down, we have a big news story coming from Juneau. The Alaska State Legislature's bipartisan investigation on the firing of Alaska Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan by Gov. Sarah Palin (R), the Vice Presidential nominee for president, has been released by a unanimous 12-0 vote. The findings of the report state that, Gov. Palin unethically stepped in to fire Mr. Monegan and the claim that he was fired for not terminating state trooper Michael Wooten (the former brother-in-law of the Governor) is true; however, it is not the exclusive reason, and the Governor followed all procedural rights and requirements, as stated in the report by Stephen Branchflower, leader of the investigation: "Governor Palin's firing of Commissioner Monegan was a proper and lawful exercise of her consitutional and statutory authority to hire and fire executive branch department heads."
What do I make of this? I think that this will be another mitigating factor for Palin (as we haven't seen them already); she was put on the ticket as a "Washington outsider", but now she is seen as corrupt and possibly in need of disciplinary action. However, will it affect the campaign? Possibly, although there are a boatload of other things flying around that I will elaborate on in this post.
Click on the post title to get the full PDF file of the report by the Alaska State Legislature (NOTE: This file needs the Adobe Acrobat Reader plug-in to work; also, it's 263 pages long, so it's not recommended for a connection with a low bandwidth).
And now, back to our regularly scheduled blogging...
Obama got a huge boost from the debate on Tuesday. States such as Georgia, Arkansas, even Montana are in play. According to FiveThirtyEight, Obama is behind in Arkansas only by 7 points, 5 in Georgia, and just under 5 points in Montana. Obama even has a chance to win not one, but two electoral votes in Nebraska: since they are one of the only two states (along with Maine) that apportion electors by district, along with the at-large electors for the senators (which will, without question go to McCain), Obama is only behind by 6 points in East Nebraska, and by 4 1/2 points in Omaha. Overall, FiveThirtyEight has a projection of a 348.3-189.7 for Obama in the Electoral College, along with a 90.9% chance of victory, while Electoral-Vote has Obama leading 343-184, with the state of Missouri tied. According to Electoral-Vote, Obama leads in swing states Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Colorado, and Nevada, while McCain leads in Indiana and North Carolina, which has inexplicably become a swing state. There are also 235 Strong Democratic EV's (meaning that the polling data shows that it is double-digits in favor of Obama), so Obama has to only to hold a couple of states that are in the "Weak Dem" category (i.e. Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Florida) to win.
However, the level of negative attacks by the McCain campaign-and its supporters-is frightening. Governor Palin and others have embarked on a quest to make Obama and William Ayers sound like they were separated at birth, despite the fact that they were born over 30 years apart. Cindy McCain said that when she found out Obama voted nay on a defense spending bill because it didn't include a timetable "sent a cold chill down [her] spine"-even though McCain voted against an almost identical bill, that did have a timetable! Finally, smaller, local-level campaign managers have gone on to use incessantly Obama's middle name, Hussein. Bobby Maye, campaign chairman in Buchanan County (VA), went as far in an editorial as saying that Obama would "hire Ludacris to paint the White House black." The McCain supporters, though, are the scariest of all. Frequent chants of "terrorist" and "kill him, kill him" have been made by supporters at rallies when Obama's name is mentioned. Some supporters have gone so far as to call him "an Arab." Others have said, "Bomb Obama." The McCain has fear-mongered, and they have gone to far. McCain supporters have gone to the point where they will support killing Obama. The attacks on Obama's credibility have been so great that Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) declined McCain's invitation to have a joint rally (Coleman is in a very tight race, behind Democratic candidate, comedian Al Franken). The fearmongering must stop; people have to learn the facts. I respect Sen. McCain, but I think that he has gone to far, and has to go back to being reasonable in his attacks. This is an important point in history: we have seen the point at which people are most polarized in a presidential campaign since 1800.
We leave now with Senatorial projections. On FiveThirtyEight, the Democrats will have 56 senators to the GOP's 42, with the 2 independents, come January 2009, while Electoral-Vote has a projection of 58-41 Democrats, with the final seat, North Carolina, being a flat-footed tie between Former Gov. Kay Hagan and incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole. However, the states of Kentucky (where Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is only up by 4 to challenger Bruce Lunsford), Mississippi-B(where Sen. Roger Wicker [who replaced Trent Lott after he resigned last year] is up by 4 to Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove), and Georgia (where smear artist Saxby Chambliss [I'll have more on him later] is leading former state representative Jim Martin by 6) are moving towards going blue.
Tomorrow (I just can't do it tonight), I will post my next feature, "On Maverick Status". Sometime this weekend, I'll also post the next of the Campaign 2008 Spotlights on Sen. McCain, handicap the hottest Senate races, and post the next feature post, "On the Importance to Impeach the President". Also, stay tuned to Notepad on Wednesday for the final presidential debate, from the Mack Sports Complex at Hofstra University on Long Island, NY. I'll be presenting not only pre-debate reports 30 minutes before the debate and post-debate reports 90 minutes after, but also a live blog during the debate-so I can show the points I generally write in my debate notebook for you, the reader.
10 October 2008
08 October 2008
100 Minutes After the Debate
(This post was begun at 11:24 Eastern Daylight Time, and ended at 12:13 AM Eastern Time. The uploaded time is below)
We now see it is evident that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has 90 minutes to survive and change the tide in the presidential election. Although there are 27 days remaining until the presidential election, Sen. McCain has only one platform remaining: next Wednesday’s debate, the final debate of the campaign, from Hofstra University in Long Island, NY. McCain simply didn’t change the tide in the momentum held by Sen. Obama (D-IL), and he’s simply running out of time.
Here are the decisions from the Network 3, the Cable 3, PBS’ The News Hour, and TIME magazine’s “The Page” by Mark Halperin, in order of channel number in the New York City market:
CBS: Tie, and no effect from debate
NBC: Obama gets win on foreign policy; tie overall.
ABC: Obama wins; kept game from being changed.
CNN: Obama wins
MSNBC: Tie, but lean Obama, McCain showing that he is “swinging and missing.”
Fox News: Obama wins overall; McCain wins on economy.
The News Hour: Obama wins; proved he was presidential
TIME: Obama wins, but not a game-changer; Obama B+, McCain B
And some more info, in the form of polling data:
CNN:
CNN had dial-polls (‘tick-polls,’ as I like to call them, because they change by the second) among a focus group of uncommitted Ohio voters, sequestered in a library at The Ohio State University, and they were just as they were in last week’s VP debate; when Obama spoke, the tick-polls shot up-especially among women-while when McCain spoke, it was the Columbus Morgue-absolute flat-line. Among the focus group, 12 said that Obama had won, 10 said McCain had won, and 3 thought it was a tie.
Among the polls performed (all of which had a margin of error of +/- 4%):
Among who did the better job, Obama wins 54%-30%.
For opinions of Obama, 64% of people think favorably, up from 60% before the debate, with 34% thinking unfavorably, down from 38%.
For opinions of McCain, there was no change-it’s still 51%-46% favorable.
CBS:
CBS only had a post-debate poll this time around (at least, I didn’t see the dial-polls-they may have done them): 39% said Obama had won, 27% said McCain had won, with 35% saying it was a tie.
Here were some of my observations from this evening’s debate:
>The first thing that jumps at me is this quote:
“It was an energy bill on the floor of the Senate loaded down with goodies, billions for the oil companies, and it was sponsored by Bush and Cheney.
You know who voted for it? You might never know. That one. You know who voted against it? Me. I have fought time after time against these pork barrel -- these bills that come to the floor and they have all kinds of goodies and all kinds of things in them for everybody and they buy off the votes.”
That one? THAT ONE?! The McCain campaign has justified it as rhetoric used on the campaign trail, but I think of it as two things: first, it’s patronizing and disrespectful towards the Senator (he has a name, and he has a title), and it shows that McCain can’t shake his caricature of being a doddering, angry old man.
>From there, things got a bit more mundane. McCain didn’t go after Obama using Rezko, Ayers, or Wright-maybe he’s not willing to do that. Obama linked McCain to Bush well, distanced himself from Bush, even linked his energy policy to JFK’s statement on the space race. The turning and clinching points both came in the foreign policy section: after McCain used his catchall, “he doesn’t understand,” in terms of Obama and foreign policy, Obama said this:
“Well, you know, Sen. McCain, in the last debate and today, again, suggested that I don't understand. It's true. There are some things I don't understand. I don't understand how we ended up invading a country that had nothing to do with 9/11, while Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda are setting up base camps and safe havens to train terrorists to attack us.
That was Sen. McCain's judgment and it was the wrong judgment. When Sen. McCain was cheerleading the president to go into Iraq, he suggested it was going to be quick and easy, we'd be greeted as liberators. That was the wrong judgment, and it's been costly to us. So one of the difficulties with Iraq is that it has put an enormous strain, first of all, on our troops, obviously, and they have performed heroically and honorably and we owe them an extraordinary debt of gratitude. But it's also put an enormous strain on our budget. We've spent, so far, close to $700 billion and if we continue on the path that we're on, as Sen. McCain is suggesting, it's going to go well over $1 trillion. We're spending $10 billion a month in Iraq at a time when the Iraqis have a $79 billion surplus, $79 billion. And we need that $10 billion a month here in the United States to put people back to work, to do all these wonderful things that Sen. McCain suggested we should be doing, but has not yet explained how he would pay for.”
He took what McCain said about him not understanding-an attempt to show him as just a new face-and went right back after him with his words.
The clincher was this: Sen. McCain had just quoted Teddy Roosevelt, that he spoke softly and carried a big stick. Obama then asked for a follow-up and, once granted, he said this:
“Sen. McCain, this is the guy who sang, "Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran," who called for the annihilation of North Korea. That I don't think is an example of "speaking softly."
This is the person who, after we had -- we hadn't even finished Afghanistan, where he said, "Next up, Baghdad."
So I agree that we have to speak responsibly and we have to act responsibly. And the reason Pakistan -- the popular opinion of America had diminished in Pakistan was because we were supporting a dictator, Musharraf, had given him $10 billion over seven years, and he had suspended civil liberties. We were not promoting democracy.
This is the kind of policies that ultimately end up undermining our ability to fight the war on terrorism, and it will change when I'm president.”
Obama went right on the attack on this one; at this point, I kept waiting, and waiting, and waiting, but nothing came from McCain to make up for this.
Here’s my take on the debate, going section by section:
Economy: The economy section took approximately 30 minutes, according to CNN, and it was the first issue discussed. I thought both had a good amount of clash, and that both presented their platforms well. This one was a tie.
Energy: While McCain couldn’t get the ball rolling past nuclear plants and offshore drilling, Obama was able to talk about his diverse plan for energy, comparing his goal of being energy-independent in 10 years with JFK’s goal of getting a man on the moon within 10 years. McCain also ended with giving a plus to Obama, saying that Obama did in fact support nuclear power as part of his campaign. Obama gets a big win.
Healthcare: Obama expressed his healthcare plan concisely, and attacked McCain’s to begin. McCain did not. Obama also linked his policy to his own story, making him more real. Obama wins the round.
Foreign Policy: Both the turning point and the clincher in this round; while McCain kept repeating, going back to Iraq, Obama tied it all together, and clashed with McCain. Obama wins big in this round.
Closing: The final question was, verbatim: “What don't you know and how will you learn it?” I think Obama did well answering this question, saying that his wife has a longer list of what he doesn’t know, tied it back to his own story, and tied it back to the common voter. McCain had a good closing, and it almost matched up with Obama’s, but I give the win, just barely, to Obama on this 1-question round.
Intangibles: I awarded this one to Obama in the first half-hour; while McCain looked confused, forgetting the name of one questioner-in mid-answer-standing in front of Brokaw while he was reading the end script on the teleprompter, and also angry, pacing often(maybe he didn’t like the barstool-like chairs), crossing his arms, and sighing often á la Al Gore, circa 2000, Obama was calm and looked presidential.
The victor tonight was Obama; he ran the gamut of categories with excellence, while rebuking McCain’s claims.
Tonight’s “Reagan-o-meter”, the night’s acknowledgements of Ronald Reagan, was only at three. A new feature tonight, the “My-friends-o-meter”, was at 17 uses of the phrase, “my friend,” or, “my friends”-one use about every 5 minutes!
The final debate will take place at 9:00 PM Eastern Time, from the Mack Sports Complex at Hofstra University on Long Island, NY, on Wednesday, October 15th. Bob Scheiffer, host of CBS’ Face the Nation, will moderate. Notepad will follow the debate before, during, and after, with pre- and post-debate coverage, and a live blog for the ninety minutes.
Friday on Notepad, I provide some additional thoughts from tonight’s debate, and post-debate polling data, and “On Maverick Status.” On Monday, a Campaign 2008 Spotlight on John McCain, and “On Our Duty to Impeach the President.”
We now see it is evident that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has 90 minutes to survive and change the tide in the presidential election. Although there are 27 days remaining until the presidential election, Sen. McCain has only one platform remaining: next Wednesday’s debate, the final debate of the campaign, from Hofstra University in Long Island, NY. McCain simply didn’t change the tide in the momentum held by Sen. Obama (D-IL), and he’s simply running out of time.
Here are the decisions from the Network 3, the Cable 3, PBS’ The News Hour, and TIME magazine’s “The Page” by Mark Halperin, in order of channel number in the New York City market:
CBS: Tie, and no effect from debate
NBC: Obama gets win on foreign policy; tie overall.
ABC: Obama wins; kept game from being changed.
CNN: Obama wins
MSNBC: Tie, but lean Obama, McCain showing that he is “swinging and missing.”
Fox News: Obama wins overall; McCain wins on economy.
The News Hour: Obama wins; proved he was presidential
TIME: Obama wins, but not a game-changer; Obama B+, McCain B
And some more info, in the form of polling data:
CNN:
CNN had dial-polls (‘tick-polls,’ as I like to call them, because they change by the second) among a focus group of uncommitted Ohio voters, sequestered in a library at The Ohio State University, and they were just as they were in last week’s VP debate; when Obama spoke, the tick-polls shot up-especially among women-while when McCain spoke, it was the Columbus Morgue-absolute flat-line. Among the focus group, 12 said that Obama had won, 10 said McCain had won, and 3 thought it was a tie.
Among the polls performed (all of which had a margin of error of +/- 4%):
Among who did the better job, Obama wins 54%-30%.
For opinions of Obama, 64% of people think favorably, up from 60% before the debate, with 34% thinking unfavorably, down from 38%.
For opinions of McCain, there was no change-it’s still 51%-46% favorable.
CBS:
CBS only had a post-debate poll this time around (at least, I didn’t see the dial-polls-they may have done them): 39% said Obama had won, 27% said McCain had won, with 35% saying it was a tie.
Here were some of my observations from this evening’s debate:
>The first thing that jumps at me is this quote:
“It was an energy bill on the floor of the Senate loaded down with goodies, billions for the oil companies, and it was sponsored by Bush and Cheney.
You know who voted for it? You might never know. That one. You know who voted against it? Me. I have fought time after time against these pork barrel -- these bills that come to the floor and they have all kinds of goodies and all kinds of things in them for everybody and they buy off the votes.”
That one? THAT ONE?! The McCain campaign has justified it as rhetoric used on the campaign trail, but I think of it as two things: first, it’s patronizing and disrespectful towards the Senator (he has a name, and he has a title), and it shows that McCain can’t shake his caricature of being a doddering, angry old man.
>From there, things got a bit more mundane. McCain didn’t go after Obama using Rezko, Ayers, or Wright-maybe he’s not willing to do that. Obama linked McCain to Bush well, distanced himself from Bush, even linked his energy policy to JFK’s statement on the space race. The turning and clinching points both came in the foreign policy section: after McCain used his catchall, “he doesn’t understand,” in terms of Obama and foreign policy, Obama said this:
“Well, you know, Sen. McCain, in the last debate and today, again, suggested that I don't understand. It's true. There are some things I don't understand. I don't understand how we ended up invading a country that had nothing to do with 9/11, while Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda are setting up base camps and safe havens to train terrorists to attack us.
That was Sen. McCain's judgment and it was the wrong judgment. When Sen. McCain was cheerleading the president to go into Iraq, he suggested it was going to be quick and easy, we'd be greeted as liberators. That was the wrong judgment, and it's been costly to us. So one of the difficulties with Iraq is that it has put an enormous strain, first of all, on our troops, obviously, and they have performed heroically and honorably and we owe them an extraordinary debt of gratitude. But it's also put an enormous strain on our budget. We've spent, so far, close to $700 billion and if we continue on the path that we're on, as Sen. McCain is suggesting, it's going to go well over $1 trillion. We're spending $10 billion a month in Iraq at a time when the Iraqis have a $79 billion surplus, $79 billion. And we need that $10 billion a month here in the United States to put people back to work, to do all these wonderful things that Sen. McCain suggested we should be doing, but has not yet explained how he would pay for.”
He took what McCain said about him not understanding-an attempt to show him as just a new face-and went right back after him with his words.
The clincher was this: Sen. McCain had just quoted Teddy Roosevelt, that he spoke softly and carried a big stick. Obama then asked for a follow-up and, once granted, he said this:
“Sen. McCain, this is the guy who sang, "Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran," who called for the annihilation of North Korea. That I don't think is an example of "speaking softly."
This is the person who, after we had -- we hadn't even finished Afghanistan, where he said, "Next up, Baghdad."
So I agree that we have to speak responsibly and we have to act responsibly. And the reason Pakistan -- the popular opinion of America had diminished in Pakistan was because we were supporting a dictator, Musharraf, had given him $10 billion over seven years, and he had suspended civil liberties. We were not promoting democracy.
This is the kind of policies that ultimately end up undermining our ability to fight the war on terrorism, and it will change when I'm president.”
Obama went right on the attack on this one; at this point, I kept waiting, and waiting, and waiting, but nothing came from McCain to make up for this.
Here’s my take on the debate, going section by section:
Economy: The economy section took approximately 30 minutes, according to CNN, and it was the first issue discussed. I thought both had a good amount of clash, and that both presented their platforms well. This one was a tie.
Energy: While McCain couldn’t get the ball rolling past nuclear plants and offshore drilling, Obama was able to talk about his diverse plan for energy, comparing his goal of being energy-independent in 10 years with JFK’s goal of getting a man on the moon within 10 years. McCain also ended with giving a plus to Obama, saying that Obama did in fact support nuclear power as part of his campaign. Obama gets a big win.
Healthcare: Obama expressed his healthcare plan concisely, and attacked McCain’s to begin. McCain did not. Obama also linked his policy to his own story, making him more real. Obama wins the round.
Foreign Policy: Both the turning point and the clincher in this round; while McCain kept repeating, going back to Iraq, Obama tied it all together, and clashed with McCain. Obama wins big in this round.
Closing: The final question was, verbatim: “What don't you know and how will you learn it?” I think Obama did well answering this question, saying that his wife has a longer list of what he doesn’t know, tied it back to his own story, and tied it back to the common voter. McCain had a good closing, and it almost matched up with Obama’s, but I give the win, just barely, to Obama on this 1-question round.
Intangibles: I awarded this one to Obama in the first half-hour; while McCain looked confused, forgetting the name of one questioner-in mid-answer-standing in front of Brokaw while he was reading the end script on the teleprompter, and also angry, pacing often(maybe he didn’t like the barstool-like chairs), crossing his arms, and sighing often á la Al Gore, circa 2000, Obama was calm and looked presidential.
The victor tonight was Obama; he ran the gamut of categories with excellence, while rebuking McCain’s claims.
Tonight’s “Reagan-o-meter”, the night’s acknowledgements of Ronald Reagan, was only at three. A new feature tonight, the “My-friends-o-meter”, was at 17 uses of the phrase, “my friend,” or, “my friends”-one use about every 5 minutes!
The final debate will take place at 9:00 PM Eastern Time, from the Mack Sports Complex at Hofstra University on Long Island, NY, on Wednesday, October 15th. Bob Scheiffer, host of CBS’ Face the Nation, will moderate. Notepad will follow the debate before, during, and after, with pre- and post-debate coverage, and a live blog for the ninety minutes.
Friday on Notepad, I provide some additional thoughts from tonight’s debate, and post-debate polling data, and “On Maverick Status.” On Monday, a Campaign 2008 Spotlight on John McCain, and “On Our Duty to Impeach the President.”
07 October 2008
30 Minutes Before the Debate
(This post was begun at 8:32 PM Eastern Daylight Time, and completed at 8:58 PM EDT; the time in which it was uploaded is listed below)
“When I was walking in Memphis
Walking with my feet ten feet off of Beale
Walking in Memphis
But do I really feel the way I feel?”
-Marc Cohn
After two blasé wins for the Democrats in the debates of Mississippi and Missouri, we have reached the closest thing to the People’s Debate: the “town-hall” debate, from the Curb Events Center at Belmont University in Nashville, TN. The debate, moderated by retired NBC Nightly News anchor Tom Brokaw (still a Special Correspondent, and interim Meet the Press anchor, for NBC), will feature questions not only from the moderator, but also from the audience, and even from the Internet. Here are some pre-debate observations and things you should look at for tonight’s debate:
>McCain has the upper hand (or does he?): The McCain campaign has stated in the past that a town-hall format is his specialty, and asked the Commission on Presidential Debates for 10 town-hall debates. However, McCain has made some of his biggest gaffes at town-hall events, including his infamous “Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran” song, appropriated from the Beach Boys’ “Barbara Ann”, and his statement when asked if we would stay in Iraq for 40 years, “Why not a hundred?”
>McCain is on his last legs: You can see the way McCain’s wheels are coming off from the current campaign language. For the first time this campaign, McCain is directly attacking Sen. Barack Obama’s merit, with Gov. Sarah Palin going after Obama for his relationship on a charity board with William Ayers, leader of 1960s radical organization Weather Underground-even though in The Audacity of Hope, Obama’s second book, he had expressed that Ayers was, essentially, a nut. Will McCain himself follow the line of desperate mudslinging this evening in Memphis? And will Obama respond with his own mudslinging, most likely on the subject of Sen. McCain’s involvement in the Keating Five scandal?
>This may be McCain’s last shot: With only one debate remaining (and the topic being domestic policy, an Obama stronghold), Sen. McCain may have his one final shot to break Obama’s momentum; while a win can turn the tide and bring him surging back in the polls, a loss may clinch a win for Obama as the number of swing states shrinks; Obama now leads 349-174, with the state of North Carolina still tied, on Electoral-Vote, winning in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia (McCain’s got Indiana and West Virginia, but is even slipping in Montana, Mississippi, and Georgia [the latter two have fierce Senate races going on]), while FiveThirtyEight has Obama winning 345.4-192.6, with an 89.2% probability of victory.
Tonight’s debate, from Memphis, Tennessee, begins at 9:00 PM. Expect a post-debate report, with reactions and polls from the Network 3, the Cable 3, and more circa midnight.
“When I was walking in Memphis
Walking with my feet ten feet off of Beale
Walking in Memphis
But do I really feel the way I feel?”
-Marc Cohn
After two blasé wins for the Democrats in the debates of Mississippi and Missouri, we have reached the closest thing to the People’s Debate: the “town-hall” debate, from the Curb Events Center at Belmont University in Nashville, TN. The debate, moderated by retired NBC Nightly News anchor Tom Brokaw (still a Special Correspondent, and interim Meet the Press anchor, for NBC), will feature questions not only from the moderator, but also from the audience, and even from the Internet. Here are some pre-debate observations and things you should look at for tonight’s debate:
>McCain has the upper hand (or does he?): The McCain campaign has stated in the past that a town-hall format is his specialty, and asked the Commission on Presidential Debates for 10 town-hall debates. However, McCain has made some of his biggest gaffes at town-hall events, including his infamous “Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran” song, appropriated from the Beach Boys’ “Barbara Ann”, and his statement when asked if we would stay in Iraq for 40 years, “Why not a hundred?”
>McCain is on his last legs: You can see the way McCain’s wheels are coming off from the current campaign language. For the first time this campaign, McCain is directly attacking Sen. Barack Obama’s merit, with Gov. Sarah Palin going after Obama for his relationship on a charity board with William Ayers, leader of 1960s radical organization Weather Underground-even though in The Audacity of Hope, Obama’s second book, he had expressed that Ayers was, essentially, a nut. Will McCain himself follow the line of desperate mudslinging this evening in Memphis? And will Obama respond with his own mudslinging, most likely on the subject of Sen. McCain’s involvement in the Keating Five scandal?
>This may be McCain’s last shot: With only one debate remaining (and the topic being domestic policy, an Obama stronghold), Sen. McCain may have his one final shot to break Obama’s momentum; while a win can turn the tide and bring him surging back in the polls, a loss may clinch a win for Obama as the number of swing states shrinks; Obama now leads 349-174, with the state of North Carolina still tied, on Electoral-Vote, winning in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia (McCain’s got Indiana and West Virginia, but is even slipping in Montana, Mississippi, and Georgia [the latter two have fierce Senate races going on]), while FiveThirtyEight has Obama winning 345.4-192.6, with an 89.2% probability of victory.
Tonight’s debate, from Memphis, Tennessee, begins at 9:00 PM. Expect a post-debate report, with reactions and polls from the Network 3, the Cable 3, and more circa midnight.
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