Hot Senatorial Races

A few months ago, Notepad did a very early coverage of the senatorial elections. Now, let's cover the top 10 closest campaigns, according to Electoral-Vote and FiveThirtyEight:

10. Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) is retiring at the end of this Congress, leaving the seat open-but remember, this is a state that has been quickly shifting left; they have a recently elected Governor (Democrat), Senator (Democrat), and they control the state legislature. Mark Udall, Democratic Congressman from Boulder, is currently leading Bob Schaffer, a former congressman and current oilman. The polls show that Mark Udall is leading big-a 94% likelihood of victory, says FiveThirtyEight-but, hey, ten's a round number and I only have got four close races. By the way, Mark's cousin, Tom, a Democratic congressman, is leading big in New Mexico against Steve Pearce in Pete Domenici's (R) seat. PREDICTION: UDALL BY 15

9. Texas: John Cornyn, inexplicably, is winning only by six points to Rick Noriega, a state representative and Afghanistan war veteran (who came in first in a five-man primary that included-no joke- a man named Gene Kelly. GOTTA DANCE!!!) This is unbelievable that it is this close in the polls, and it has continued to go up since late August. This may be a seat that the DSCC will put money in, but I don't think that they will win it. PREDICTION: CORNYN BY 7

8. New Hampshire: Let's face it, if George W. Bush lived in New Hampshire, his name would be John E. Sununu. He's only voted 84% of the time with Bush, but, to steal a quote from Sen. Obama, "I don't want to take a 16% chance on change." He's for the war in Iraq, voted to suspend the right of habeas corpus for detainees at Guantanamo, and voted against renewing the assault weapons ban. That's not to say he's been terrible, but Jeanne Shaheen, former 3-term Governor, would be better. In her six years in Concord, she'd reformed healthcare for children, shown her pro-choice standpoint by repealing a law that would make abortion a felony in the state, and had been a fervent supporter of early education. But she only has an 8 point lead in the polls, after having led by almost twenty. PREDICTION: SHAHEEN BY 6

7. Kentucky: This isn't the most surprising shift, but Mitch McConnell is in trouble late, after having led by almost 20 points to veteran and one of the founders of Vencor, a healthcare company. McConnell, simply put, has voted with Bush on Iraq-a death knell for any candidate. He's also cited as one of the leaders in the "do-nothing Senate" they always talk about. McConnell is now only ahead by 4 points, and can fall victim to the Obama effect. PREDICTION: LUNSFORD BY 1

6. Georgia: I'll just appropriate a quote from Muhammad Ali to describe Saxby Chambliss: "He's a bad man!!!" After running a campaign in 2002 that involved smearing Vietnam veteran, triple-amputee Max Cleland, who earned a Silver Star and a Bronze Star in Vietnam, comparing him in advertisements to Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden. Now, he's again in hot water, for-guess what!-being for the war in Iraq! And who is he running against now? A Vietnam veteran!!! It just keeps getting better and better. Except this time it's not Cleland, but Jim Martin, former Georgia state representative. He's for a staged withdrawal from Iraq, and with the Obama effect in Georgia, this might turn, as well-he's only down by two in the polls. PREDICTION: MARTIN BY 3

5. Oregon: Gordon Smith's a really nice guy. I mean a really, really nice guy. He's a Republican who has crossed party lines and got the job done. But we said the same about Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island just two years ago, when he was defeated by Sheldon Whitehouse-not because he did anything wrong, but that he was a Republican. This looks like it's having the same effect for Jeff Merkley, who is leading by 4 points in a recent Research 2000 poll. PREDICTION: MERKLEY BY 5

4. Mississippi-B: In Mississippi-A, Sen. Thad Cochran (R) will cruise to a victory. However, in the Mississippi-B race, where Roger Wicker (who was appointed to the Senate in Trent Lott's seat, after the latter resigned to become a lobbyist last year) is in a dogfight with former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove. Musgrove wasn't the most popular governor in Mississippi(he divorced his wife in mid-term, and was part of a controversial ordeal with the divisive Mississippi state flag), and he won't be a favorite with the rest of the Democrats (he's against same-sex couples adopting children, much less getting married; is for putting "In God We Trust" in public schools; and wished to keep the Ten Commandments in the State Capitol). But, let's face it-he's had a good stand on education, and is against what's going on now in Iraq. This race has been nailbiting-Wicker's leading by just 1 point in the latest poll-and the Obama effect may cause this to turn. PREDICTION: WICKER BY A FEW THOUSAND

3. North Carolina: This one is the surpriser of the entire campaign. The fact that Obama is doing well in North Carolina: stunning. The idea that Elizabeth Dole, running for a second term, is losing to Kay Hagan, an unknown state senator? Amazing beyond one's wildest dreams (or nightmares, depending on who you support). Along with her service as president of the National Republican Senatorial Committee-boy, she did a great job!, she's voted with Bush 92% of the time. This is more fire for Hagan, who has gotten support in the form of rallies from Senator Obama, and she's also been strong on education. PREDICTION: HAGAN BY 3

2. Minnesota: Norm Coleman-poor, poor Norm Coleman. Again, not a terrible guy-in fact, he used to campaign for Democrats. But he's been for Iraq from the beginning-and that's where Al Franken comes in. The former comedian (but that doesn't mean he's not funny anymore) and political commentator has been to Iraq (he's done several tours for the USO) and has been fighting very hard the last two years. Let's face it, at this point in the campaign-where Franken and Coleman are tied-this is priority number 1 for the Democratic Party. PREDICTION: FRANKEN BY 2

1. Alaska: Ah, the corruption capital of this nation. Home to Don Young, indicted Congressman (who will probably lose to Ethan Berkowitz come next Tuesday); Sarah Palin, VP nominee and proven to be unethical in the Troopergate scandal; and Ted Stevens, who is right now, as I write this, having a good shot to have his political career decided by 8 women and 4 men. Stevens is on trial for violations of ethics acts, with the decision probably coming in the next couple of days. That will probably be the deciding factor in this campaign between Stevens and Mark Begich, mayor of Anchorage, the state's largest city. If Stevens is found guilty, Begich will win, probably by at least 5 points. If he's acquitted, Stevens might win, although there's still a possibility. Rembember he's the guy who brought you the "Bridge to Nowhere"-but also remember that he's seen as the breadwinner for Alaska on that front. Will that play a role? PREDICTION: I'LL TELL YOU IN A FEW DAYS

Expect a feature post tomorrow, "On Maverick Status". I will also post, by Monday, a Campaign 2008 Spotlight on the presidential candidates, and "Declaration of the Rights of the municipal New Yorker".