While all eyes are on the '08 presidential elections, with their Hollywood 'frontrunners,' and their actual candidates for change, such as Rep. Ron Paul(R-TX) and Gov. Bill Richardson(D-NM), there is a very important aspect of the federal government that is yet to be decided. The Democratic Party hold what is the technical and traditional definition of a majority in the Senate; they hold 51 seats(or, rather, 49 seats, with with two independents caucusing) to the Republicans' 49. However, as has been seen throughout the 1st Session of the 110th Congress, the Democrats do not hold a true majority in the Senate; any provision will be knocked down with the threat of a Republican filibuster. The Democrats need 60 seats in order to have a true majority. Enter the senatorial elections for the 110th Senate, 3rd Session.
In 2008, the class II senators will be up for re-election. The following seats are up for grabs:
Democratic incumbent races:
Mark Pryor of Arkansas
Dick Durbin of Illinois
Tom Harkin of Iowa
Mary Landrieu of Louisiana
John Kerry of Massachusetts
Carl Levin of Michigan
Max Baucus of Montana
Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey
Jack Reed of Rhode Island
Tim Johnson of South Dakota
Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia
Republican incumbent races:
Jeff Sessions of Alabama
Saxby Chambliss of Georgia
Pat Roberts of Kansas
Mitch McConnell of Kentucky
Susan Collins of Maine
Norm Coleman of Minnesota
Thad Cochran of Mississippi
John Sununu of New Hampshire
Pete Domenici of New Mexico
Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina
Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma
Gordon Smith of Oregon
Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
Lamar Alexander of Tennessee
John Cornyn of Texas
Michael Enzi of Wyoming
Special Elections and Retirements:
John Barrasso (R) of Wyoming
Wayne Allard (R) of Colorado
Chuck Hagel (R) of Nebraska
John Warner (R) of Virginia
Larry Craig (R) of Idaho
The Republicans have more to lose in this election, with 22 of their seats up for grabs, compared to 12 on the Democrats' side of the aisle. Also, eight Republicans up for election are completing their first term, compared to one Dem. Finally, with the GOP's leaders struggling and retiring, and the threat of a mammoth Democratic turnout in November, the Republicans better hold on tight; they're in for a rocky ride.
Here's my take on the biggest and most open campaigns:
Democratic incumbent races:
Mary Landrieu of Louisiana:
Senator Landrieu never especially had great success in Senatorial elections, even though she is a two-term senator. Elected in a close election in 1996, and a runoff in 2002, this will be possibly the most-fought for seat by Republicans, and the only Democratic seat that I think is truly up for grabs. State Attorney General John N. Kennedy will most likely challenge Landrieu for her seat; however, with the scandal encompassing Louisiana junior senator David Vitter and the speculation that Kennedy, who has changed party ties from Democrat to Republican, may have been prodded to run by Karl Rove, may prove very costly for the Republicans during this election.
Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey:
While Lautenberg, if having not had tow separate stints in the Senate, could have been President pro tem, he is growing unpopular in New Jersey. A Quinnipiac poll from July says that only 41 per cent of New Jerseyites approve of Sen. Lautenberg, compared to 32 per cent disapproving. The 27% undecided can be the most important part of the US population next autumn, as a close election in 2006, which ended in election for incumbent Sen. Robert Menendez, can become a landslide for a Republican candidate in '08. Also, Lautenberg is growing elderly; at 84, there may be chances that he will not even run. If he doesn't run, Rep. Rush Holt will most likely take his place.
Tim Johnson of South Dakota:
Johnson suffered a brain anyeurysm, or close to such, in 2007, which forced him to miss eight months in the Senate, but will run in 2008. However, his health, and his slim victory in 2002(winning by just over 500 votes), will cause the Republicans to fight for this seat. However, with an approval rating of over 70% in South Dakota, this seat really isn't up for grabs for now.
Republican incumbent races
Ted Stevens of Alaska:
Stevens is still going through a federal investigation, along with his son, the former president of the Alaska state Senate. This may cause Alaskans to take a dislike to Stevens(for goodness sake, he's gotten into a run-in with the law). Of course, Stevens is a very popular Senator in Alaska, serving almost since statehood. If there is a big Democratic nominee, it might get interesting.
Saxby Chambliss of Georgia:
Chambliss won his seat in 2002 by comparing incumbent Senator, and triple-amputee Vietnam veteran, Max Cleland, to Osama bin Laden. These scare tactics have been frowned upon throughout the nation, and will not be tolerated when Chambliss runs again. Another Chambliss v. Cleland election?
Mitch McConnell of Kentucky:
Between rumors that it will be George Clooney challenging the current Minority Leader, and the possibility of a run by Andrew Horne, an Iraq War veteran, McConnell is in trouble. Why he's also in trouble: his ties to President Bush, which will be stressed highly in '08.
Part II next week:
Susan Collins of Maine
Norm Coleman of Minnesota
John Sununu of New Hampshire
Pete Domenici of New Mexico
Lamar Alexander of Tennessee
Retirements and Resignations:
Wayne Allard (R) of Colorado
Chuck Hagel (R) of Nebraska
John Warner (R) of Virginia
Larry Craig (R) of Idaho
29 September 2007
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