03 November 2008

We're getting closer...

...To Election Day. It's one hour away. Here's the latest polling data:

On Electoral-Vote, Obama has led 353-185 in the Electoral College for the last two days, picking up Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, in theory. The Senate (including Sens. Sanders (I-VT) and Lieberman (I-CT)) will theoretically be held by Democrats, 58-42, with Alaskan Mark Begich, the Udall cousins, Mark in Colorado and Tom in New Mexico, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, Kay Hagan in North Carolina, Jeff Merkley in Oregon, and Mark Warner in Virginia picking up seats in theory, with the battle between Al Franken and Norm Coleman in Minnesota being a statistical tie.

In the latest tracking polls...
- CBS News (Obama +13)
- Diageo (Obama +5)
- Gallup Expanded (Obama +9)
- IBD (Obama +2)
- Opinion Research (Obama +7)
- Pew (Obama +6)
- Rasmussem (Obama +5)
- Research 2000 (Obama +7)
- Washington Post/ABC News (Obama +11)
- Zogby (Obama +6)

FiveThirtyEight reports in the latest calculations that Obama will theoretically win 346.5-191.5, with a 98.1 possibility of victory, while the Senate will move 59.1-60.9Democratic. Obama will most likely win somewhere between 291-378 electoral votes. Among the more interesting simulations:
-Obama has a 31% likelihood of a landslide (>375 EV's)
-Obama has an 84.05% likelihood of winning the election while losing Ohio and Florida.

Some things to look at, hour by hour (all Eastern Time):

7:00: Polls close in Virginia, which will really be a bellwether for the way the race will go (along with having an important Senate race), Indiana, another swing state(which is generally one of the fastest to call), Kentucky-where there is a dogfight in the Senate between Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Bruce Lunsford-and Georgia, where there is another battle, this time between Jim Martin and incumbent Saxby Chambliss.

7:30: Three big states: Ohio, North Carolina (watch out in the Hagan/Liddy Dole race!) and West Virginia. 'Nuff said.

8:00: Polls close in Florida, Mississippi (home of a race between sitting senator Roger Wicker and former governor Ronnie Musgrove), Missouri, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.

8:30: Popcorn break as the numbers come in-perhaps a call???

9:00: Polls close in Arizona, Colorado (Mark Udall-Bob Schaffer race, along with a swing state), Louisiana (thrown into near-toss-up territory in the last few days), Minnesota (Franken-Coleman race), New Mexico (swing state and Tom Udall race), and South Dakota

9:40: My prediction for a virtual call.

10:00: Polls close in Iowa, Montana, and Nevada.

11:00: Polls close in California (look at the Prop 8 vote), North Dakota, and Oregon.

11:20: I go to sleep.

1:00 AM: Alaska polls close. You've got problems if you stay up this late.

Stay tuned for tomorrow's live blog, right here on Notepad. Also, if you're in the New York area, you can go to "Election Plaza" at Rockefeller Center, where you can see the NBC shows tape along with seeing the numbers come in at 30 Rock and the rink, or at Times Square, which will be the headquarters of ABC's coverage.

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