360 Minutes Before the Debate

After three straight Obama/Biden wins, John McCain and the GOP are desperately trying to swing their momentum. The Electoral College projections have been at their highest point so far this campaign, with Obama leading 361.4-176.6 on FiveThirtyEight and 357-181 on Electoral-Vote, not to mention an almost 96% chance of an Obama victory. Tonight's debate at 9:00 PM at Hofstra University may be the last chance for the McCain campaign to swing the momentum back. Tonight's theme is domestic policy; it's been a large part of all the debates so far, and it seems like both are getting better at this portion of the debate.

Here's what I think should be looked at in tonight's debate:

>Will he or won't he?: That's the question that everyone's asking of John McCain, who's gone negative, gone more negative, and has now had to backtrack and pick up the mud he slung over the past week on '60s Weathermen leader William Ayers, whom Obama had worked with in the 1990s. At rallies last week in Ohio, McCain had to confront claims from supporters that Obama was "an Arab", "a terrorist", and that we have to fear an Obama Administration. Also, political flames have been stoked by lower-level members of the GOP, such as the Virginia head of the Republican Party, who compared Sen. Obama to Osama bin Laden, because both "have friends who bombed the Pentagon." If McCain doesn't attack in tonight's debate, it will only show the hypocrisy of his campaign. However, if he does go negative, will Sen. Obama fight back with, say, the Keating Five scandal, or delving into what Rolling Stone magazine delved into in their newest issue on Sen. McCain's military record?

>Does Obama have an advantage?: With tonight's debate being about domestic policy, something Sen. Obama and the Democrats generally have an advantage on, Obama seems to have the edge in tonight's debate. However, with recent economic changes and in the past week-and-a-half, through an economic roller coaster ride (first 1500 points down last week, including a 777-point drop, then 953 points up yesterday alone, and now, at press time, an over 500-point drop in the last two days), a global bailout in Europe and a focused bailout in the U.S., the economic meltdown of Iceland, and the seemingly global endorsement of regulation with the awarding of the Nobel Prize in Economics to Paul Krugman, it is important now more than ever that we truly see the economic policy of the two candidates. With the microscope put on, we'll see how Obama and McCain do.

>Does Obama have home-field?: With tonight's debate in Democratic stronghold New York, it will be interesting to see how the crowd melds tonight's debate.

Tonight's debate, at 9:00 PM Eastern Time, from the Mack Sports Center at Hofstra University on Long Island, NY, will be moderated by Bob Scheiffer, former host of the CBS Evening News and longtime host of Face the Nation. Stay tuned to Notepad for a special live blog coinciding with tonight's debate, starting at 8:45 PM. Then, expect circa midnight a post-debate wrap-up, with in-depth analysis from myself, the Network 3, the Cable 3, and more, along with polls from the major networks.