100 Minutes After the Debate

(This post was begun at 11:24 Eastern Daylight Time, and ended at 12:13 AM Eastern Time. The uploaded time is below)

We now see it is evident that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has 90 minutes to survive and change the tide in the presidential election. Although there are 27 days remaining until the presidential election, Sen. McCain has only one platform remaining: next Wednesday’s debate, the final debate of the campaign, from Hofstra University in Long Island, NY. McCain simply didn’t change the tide in the momentum held by Sen. Obama (D-IL), and he’s simply running out of time.

Here are the decisions from the Network 3, the Cable 3, PBS’ The News Hour, and TIME magazine’s “The Page” by Mark Halperin, in order of channel number in the New York City market:
CBS: Tie, and no effect from debate
NBC: Obama gets win on foreign policy; tie overall.
ABC: Obama wins; kept game from being changed.
CNN: Obama wins
MSNBC: Tie, but lean Obama, McCain showing that he is “swinging and missing.”
Fox News: Obama wins overall; McCain wins on economy.
The News Hour: Obama wins; proved he was presidential
TIME: Obama wins, but not a game-changer; Obama B+, McCain B

And some more info, in the form of polling data:
CNN:
CNN had dial-polls (‘tick-polls,’ as I like to call them, because they change by the second) among a focus group of uncommitted Ohio voters, sequestered in a library at The Ohio State University, and they were just as they were in last week’s VP debate; when Obama spoke, the tick-polls shot up-especially among women-while when McCain spoke, it was the Columbus Morgue-absolute flat-line. Among the focus group, 12 said that Obama had won, 10 said McCain had won, and 3 thought it was a tie.

Among the polls performed (all of which had a margin of error of +/- 4%):
Among who did the better job, Obama wins 54%-30%.

For opinions of Obama, 64% of people think favorably, up from 60% before the debate, with 34% thinking unfavorably, down from 38%.

For opinions of McCain, there was no change-it’s still 51%-46% favorable.

CBS:
CBS only had a post-debate poll this time around (at least, I didn’t see the dial-polls-they may have done them): 39% said Obama had won, 27% said McCain had won, with 35% saying it was a tie.

Here were some of my observations from this evening’s debate:
>The first thing that jumps at me is this quote:
“It was an energy bill on the floor of the Senate loaded down with goodies, billions for the oil companies, and it was sponsored by Bush and Cheney.
You know who voted for it? You might never know. That one. You know who voted against it? Me. I have fought time after time against these pork barrel -- these bills that come to the floor and they have all kinds of goodies and all kinds of things in them for everybody and they buy off the votes.”

That one? THAT ONE?! The McCain campaign has justified it as rhetoric used on the campaign trail, but I think of it as two things: first, it’s patronizing and disrespectful towards the Senator (he has a name, and he has a title), and it shows that McCain can’t shake his caricature of being a doddering, angry old man.

>From there, things got a bit more mundane. McCain didn’t go after Obama using Rezko, Ayers, or Wright-maybe he’s not willing to do that. Obama linked McCain to Bush well, distanced himself from Bush, even linked his energy policy to JFK’s statement on the space race. The turning and clinching points both came in the foreign policy section: after McCain used his catchall, “he doesn’t understand,” in terms of Obama and foreign policy, Obama said this:

“Well, you know, Sen. McCain, in the last debate and today, again, suggested that I don't understand. It's true. There are some things I don't understand. I don't understand how we ended up invading a country that had nothing to do with 9/11, while Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda are setting up base camps and safe havens to train terrorists to attack us.
That was Sen. McCain's judgment and it was the wrong judgment. When Sen. McCain was cheerleading the president to go into Iraq, he suggested it was going to be quick and easy, we'd be greeted as liberators. That was the wrong judgment, and it's been costly to us. So one of the difficulties with Iraq is that it has put an enormous strain, first of all, on our troops, obviously, and they have performed heroically and honorably and we owe them an extraordinary debt of gratitude. But it's also put an enormous strain on our budget. We've spent, so far, close to $700 billion and if we continue on the path that we're on, as Sen. McCain is suggesting, it's going to go well over $1 trillion. We're spending $10 billion a month in Iraq at a time when the Iraqis have a $79 billion surplus, $79 billion. And we need that $10 billion a month here in the United States to put people back to work, to do all these wonderful things that Sen. McCain suggested we should be doing, but has not yet explained how he would pay for.”
He took what McCain said about him not understanding-an attempt to show him as just a new face-and went right back after him with his words.

The clincher was this: Sen. McCain had just quoted Teddy Roosevelt, that he spoke softly and carried a big stick. Obama then asked for a follow-up and, once granted, he said this:

“Sen. McCain, this is the guy who sang, "Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran," who called for the annihilation of North Korea. That I don't think is an example of "speaking softly."
This is the person who, after we had -- we hadn't even finished Afghanistan, where he said, "Next up, Baghdad."
So I agree that we have to speak responsibly and we have to act responsibly. And the reason Pakistan -- the popular opinion of America had diminished in Pakistan was because we were supporting a dictator, Musharraf, had given him $10 billion over seven years, and he had suspended civil liberties. We were not promoting democracy.
This is the kind of policies that ultimately end up undermining our ability to fight the war on terrorism, and it will change when I'm president.”
Obama went right on the attack on this one; at this point, I kept waiting, and waiting, and waiting, but nothing came from McCain to make up for this.

Here’s my take on the debate, going section by section:

Economy: The economy section took approximately 30 minutes, according to CNN, and it was the first issue discussed. I thought both had a good amount of clash, and that both presented their platforms well. This one was a tie.

Energy: While McCain couldn’t get the ball rolling past nuclear plants and offshore drilling, Obama was able to talk about his diverse plan for energy, comparing his goal of being energy-independent in 10 years with JFK’s goal of getting a man on the moon within 10 years. McCain also ended with giving a plus to Obama, saying that Obama did in fact support nuclear power as part of his campaign. Obama gets a big win.

Healthcare: Obama expressed his healthcare plan concisely, and attacked McCain’s to begin. McCain did not. Obama also linked his policy to his own story, making him more real. Obama wins the round.

Foreign Policy: Both the turning point and the clincher in this round; while McCain kept repeating, going back to Iraq, Obama tied it all together, and clashed with McCain. Obama wins big in this round.

Closing: The final question was, verbatim: “What don't you know and how will you learn it?” I think Obama did well answering this question, saying that his wife has a longer list of what he doesn’t know, tied it back to his own story, and tied it back to the common voter. McCain had a good closing, and it almost matched up with Obama’s, but I give the win, just barely, to Obama on this 1-question round.

Intangibles: I awarded this one to Obama in the first half-hour; while McCain looked confused, forgetting the name of one questioner-in mid-answer-standing in front of Brokaw while he was reading the end script on the teleprompter, and also angry, pacing often(maybe he didn’t like the barstool-like chairs), crossing his arms, and sighing often á la Al Gore, circa 2000, Obama was calm and looked presidential.

The victor tonight was Obama; he ran the gamut of categories with excellence, while rebuking McCain’s claims.

Tonight’s “Reagan-o-meter”, the night’s acknowledgements of Ronald Reagan, was only at three. A new feature tonight, the “My-friends-o-meter”, was at 17 uses of the phrase, “my friend,” or, “my friends”-one use about every 5 minutes!


The final debate will take place at 9:00 PM Eastern Time, from the Mack Sports Complex at Hofstra University on Long Island, NY, on Wednesday, October 15th. Bob Scheiffer, host of CBS’ Face the Nation, will moderate. Notepad will follow the debate before, during, and after, with pre- and post-debate coverage, and a live blog for the ninety minutes.

Friday on Notepad, I provide some additional thoughts from tonight’s debate, and post-debate polling data, and “On Maverick Status.” On Monday, a Campaign 2008 Spotlight on John McCain, and “On Our Duty to Impeach the President.”