25 Minutes Until the Debate

(This writing was begun at 8:35 PM Eastern Daylight Time, and completed at 9:00 PM EDT; it was uploaded at the time below)

25 Minutes Until the Debate

Many a time they speak about the ‘game changer’: a variable-an ‘x-factor’ so volatile that it can dissolve on previous spectrum of thinking, and create a whole new one. Tonight may be that ‘game-changer’ in St. Louis, Missouri, as Washington University will be the site of the lone vice-presidential debate, between Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) and Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK). Or, better yet, they’re going against each other’s running mates. There is no possibility that they will only go after themselves-they may not go after each other altogether, making it a prime-time edition of a Sunday morning talk show, a battle of surrogates. Either way, the ‘game changer’ most likely hinges on the performance of Gov. Palin, who will either sink the chances of the McCain campaign, or be the savior of the GOP, snapping back the momentum at a point where momentum changes so little. Here’s some things to look at:

Palin’s Going In With the Bar Low: The past two weeks, every time Gov. Palin said something, she plumbed more depths in rhetoric. Palin bombed the interview with Charlie Gibson of ABC News, Katie Couric of CBS News (just name one! One Supreme Court case!), and even Sean Hannity of Fox News. Apparently, not only is Tina Fey of 30 Rock and Saturday Night Live getting laughs-from her interview transcripts-but even has lost the support of The View commentator, Survivor contestant and It seems as if the McCain-Palin ticket is pulling something much like Leo McGarry of The West Wing, bringing expectations down enough so that a mediocre performance is a win. But this is a tapeworm playing limbo here-the bar’s near the floor of the Field House Gymnasium at Washington University of St. Louis as possible.

Palin’s Going in with little preparation: Gov. Palin did little prep work for tonight’s debate, holding camp for just a week, and holding it near a creek (not exactly the place for debate, but definitely the place for meditation and tai chi).

Biden’s Going to be Careful: If Sen. Biden attacks Sarah Palin in any way, he will be derided as being sexist. However, eventually he has to attack-otherwise, he’ll be considered too calm. So he’s got to pick his fights very carefully; which will have the biggest effect without producing the biggest harm-the biggest pro-to-con ratio?

So, here’s my take on what they have to do:

Governor Palin: She’s got to breathe, and stay awake, and not look like a total idiot. If she does that, she doesn’t win, she just meets her burden. For a win, she has to show that she has experience, and that if she doesn’t have experience, she can at least compensate for it with intelligence and savvy-while explaining how that doesn’t work for Senator Obama. She also has to look vice-presidential.

Sen. Biden: The onus was previously on Gov. Palin, but now the burden is previously on Sen. Biden. He’s got to bring zingers to Sen. McCain, but also bring down Palin-in other words, say as little words as possible, while making Governor Palin cry by 10:30 PM tonight.

Stay tuned circa midnight for tonight's post-debate report on Notepad-I'll give my results and the results of the Big 3 and the Cable 3.